* add scaling into lift test method

* test scaling methods

* test change of MMM likelihood

* link up beta_channel parameters

* change name to sigma

* reorganize and edit

* closes #406

* address the feedback in docstrings

* add more to docstring

* format the docstring

* be verbose for future devs

* be explicit for the column max values

* incorporate the feedback

* hide cells and add to intro

* add conclusion

* switch to header 2

* run notebook through

* move the types together

* separate model estimated from empirical

* fix typos

* drop python 3.9

* try python 3.12

* undo try python 3.12

* improve nb

* rm warnings and add link to lifetimes quickstart

* address comments

* feedback part 3

* remove warnings manually

* add more info to the notebook

* hide plots code

* fix plot y labels

* fix plot outputs and remove model build

* improve final note probability plots

* address comments

* use quickstart dataset

* feedback part 3

* remowe warnings manually

* feedback part 4

* improve mmm docs init

* add more code examples to docstrings

* minor improvemeents

* typo

* better phrasing

* add thomas suggestion

* move fixtures to conftest

* docstrings and moved set_model_fit to conftest

* fixed pandas quickstart warnings

* revert to MockModel and add ParetoNBD support

* quickstart edit for issue 609

* notebook edit

remove ruff E501 ignore

updates:
- [github.com/astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit: v0.3.5 → v0.3.7](astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit@v0.3.5...v0.3.7)

Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>
Co-authored-by: Juan Orduz <[email protected]>

* fix potential bugs

* minor improvements

* remove rule for nb

* fix test

* improve tests syntax

* use stacklevel 2 for warnings

* use stacklevel 1 for warnings as they are used in public methods

* ignore B904

* undo change

* ricardos feedback

* use fit_posterior

* Update pymc_marketing/clv/models/gamma_gamma.py

Co-authored-by: Ricardo Vieira <[email protected]>

* last fix XD

---------

Co-authored-by: Ricardo Vieira <[email protected]>

* notebook opening and imports

* model definition markdown

* Data Load Notebook section

* WIP model fitting section

* added notebook to docs directory

* notebook edits and graph code

* ppc section and nb cleanup

* demz sampling and WIP plotting

* WIP predictive plots

* WIP heatmap plots

* predictive plots

* WIP covariates and nbqa-ruff edits

* covariate section

* plot additions

* fig sizes

* remove model file

…book (#651)

* add spaces, increase indentation, and fix number order

* explicit with 6

* Creating plot waterfall

Co-Authored-By: Carlos Trujillo <[email protected]>

* requested changes

* pre-commit

---------

Co-authored-by: Carlos Trujillo <[email protected]>

Databricks should have a lower-case b.

updates:
- [github.com/astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit: v0.4.1 → v0.4.2](astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit@v0.4.1...v0.4.2)
- [github.com/pre-commit/mirrors-mypy: v1.9.0 → v1.10.0](pre-commit/mirrors-mypy@v1.9.0...v1.10.0)

Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

* support for negative values and dates (if used)

* fix terrible spelling

* test dates in coords

* cover numpy objects

* consolidate the tests

Co-authored-by: Juan Orduz <[email protected]>

* add quickstartt to readme

* add pymc labs logo

* typos

* add community links

* fixes

* Add contributors to README

* small code style improvements

* Add time-varying prior functionality to DelayedSaturatedMMM

* resolve wd's comments

* resolve failing pre-commits

* add tvp_kwargs to model_config

* fix typo

* replace softplus

* resolve minor review comments

* Add option to supply `ax` to `plot_posterior_predictive`

* bugfix: time_index was not set correctly for OOS

If provided `X` to `_data_setter` was *not* the immediate sequence following the training set, the time_index would we wrong. With this fix, the `date["time_index"]` which gets set upon providing a new `X`, is inferred from the `self.date_column` column of provided `X` (by comparing it to same date column in the training data `self.X`).

* Clean up example notebook

* Make utility function `transform_1d_array`

* 'tvp_kwargs' -> 'intercept_tvp_kwargs'

* move `infer_time_index` into utils

* add tests for new utils

* small fixes (found in tests)

* add tests to cover all added cases

* fix ruff check

* update typehints

* resolve review comments

* refactor model logic for tv intercept

* address review comment for util test

* .

* fix documentation link

* change variable name

* fix hsgp_dims

* update time_varying_prior to be centered on 1

* review fixes

* fix broken test

* add final tests

* fix coverage issues

* Update tests/mmm/test_tvp.py

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* Update pymc_marketing/mmm/tvp.py

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* Update tests/mmm/test_tvp.py

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* Update tests/mmm/test_tvp.py

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* significant improvements to notebook

* fix heading

* update notebook to make it EVEN better

* update legend, add watermark

* fix intro

* fix broken test

* copy sweep with grammarly

---------

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* add tv intrecept to readme

* add to comparison table

* ignore non-implemented

* remove not implemented error from abstract classes

* simplify docstrings

updates:
- [github.com/astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit: v0.4.3 → v0.4.4](astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit@v0.4.3...v0.4.4)

Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

* feat(streamlit_explainer): Pushing files for Streamlit explainer app, to illustrate saturation, adstock and prior concepts in an intuitive, visual way to stakeholders and new MMMers

* chore(readme): Adding a readme for the app

* fix(env): Updating dependencies to include those needed for the Streamlit app

* Drop python 3.9 support (#615)

* drop python 3.9

* try python 3.12

* undo try python 3.12

* add lift tests check

* Add more content to the Gamma-Gamma Notebook  (#573)

* improve nb

* rm warnings and add link to lifetimes quickstart

* address comments

* feedback part 3

* remove warnings manually

* Add more content to the BG/NBD Notebook (#571)

* add more info to the notebook

* hide plots code

* fix plot y labels

* fix plot outputs and remove model build

* improve final note probability plots

* address comments

* use quickstart dataset

* feedback part 3

* remowe warnings manually

* feedback part 4

* Improve MMM Docs (#612)

* improve mmm docs init

* add more code examples to docstrings

* minor improvemeents

* typo

* better phrasing

* add thomas suggestion

* Fix `clv` plotting bugs and edits to Quickstart (#601)

* move fixtures to conftest

* docstrings and moved set_model_fit to conftest

* fixed pandas quickstart warnings

* revert to MockModel and add ParetoNBD support

* quickstart edit for issue 609

* notebook edit

* [pre-commit.ci] pre-commit autoupdate (#616)

* improve coords matching (#623)

* python 3.12 attempt (#618)

* [pre-commit.ci] auto fixes from pre-commit.com hooks

for more information, see https://pre-commit.ci

* refactor(saturation): Using pymc-marketing saturation functions rather than coding my own: Removing tanh, logistic and michaelis menten

* refactor(saturation): Remove Hill and Root saturations, as they aren't supported by pymc-marketing currently

* refactor(geometric_adstock): Removing custom adstock and using pymc-marketing adstock function to demo decay. Also updating latex to align with pymc-marketing, where decay factor is represented by alpha rather than beta

* refactor(delayed_adstock): Using pymc-marketing delayed geometric function rather than custom one

* fix(requirements): Adding pymc-marketing to Streamlit requirements for deployment

* Added Dev Container Folder

* refactor(weibull_cdf): Using pymc-marketing function for Weibull CDF

* fix(weibull_cdf): Fixing incorrect dataframe var name for CDF plotting df

* refactor(weibull_pdf): Using pymc-marketing function for WeibullPDF

* refactor(custom_functions): Removing adstock_saturation_functions.py file now that it is no longer required

* chore: Removing devcontainer created by Streamlit

* fix(requirements): Adding preliz to requirements

* refactor(prior_viz): Reworking the prior visualisation to use Preliz instead of custom function, as well as remove the tab-design. Prior distributions can now be specified programmatically.

* refactor(prior_functions.py): Deleting the draw_samples function and replacing it with a programmatic PreliZ function, such that the distribution object is returned when the user passes in the name of a distribution

* fix(requirements): Delete obsolete pymc requirement, which should fix deployment dependency conflicts

* chore(readme): Updating with guidelines on how to add additional distributions or transformation functions to the app

* refactor(plot_config): Moving height and width specifications into constants at top of Adstock and Saturation files, so the plot sizes are set programmatically

---------

Co-authored-by: Juan Orduz <[email protected]>
Co-authored-by: Colt Allen <[email protected]>
Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>
Co-authored-by: Carlos Trujillo <[email protected]>

* fix example in docstring

* change docstring

* init commit

* removed scan

* Fix logp

* Remove print statement

* Add test for logp notimplemented errors

* docstrings

* dev notebook added

* updated to vectorize_graph

* import order

* update oldest pymc_version

* Update ci.yml pymc version

* Update pyproject.toml pymc version

* WIP sample prior testing

* sample prior compared against lifetimes

* increase rtol

* remove commented code, add logp reference

* fix latex docstring

* notebook testing and misc edits

* revert latex in docstring

* add ruff ignore comment

---------

Co-authored-by: Ricardo Vieira <[email protected]>

Co-authored-by: Colt Allen <[email protected]>

* init rfm_segments func

* TODOs

* docstrings and for loop

* docstrings and for loop

* WIP dev notebook debugging

* checkpoint commit for remote pull

* code testing in dev notebook

* unit tests added

* dev notebook cleanup

* clean up type hints

* comments and code cleanup

* docstrings

* move formatting to rfm_summary and quickstart edits

* fix rfm_train_test_split bug

* added test for rfm_quartile_labels

* added rfm score warning

* use URL for image

* additional links that are relative

* remove forward slashes in URL

updates:
- [github.com/astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit: v0.4.5 → v0.4.7](astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit@v0.4.5...v0.4.7)

Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

* _extract_predictive_variables util

* deprecation warnings

* expected_purchases_new_customer

* TestBetaGeoModel.setup_class

* test cleanup and test_expected_purchases_new_customer

* expected_probability_alive

* expected_purchases

* TODOs and docstrings

* update runslow tests rtol for new test dataset

* prob_alive_matrix plot fix and notebook testing

* alive loop in bgnbd nb

* quickstart nb fix

* docstring and TODO revisions

* docstring syntax

* docstring edits

* more docstring fixes

* docstrings indent

* docstring indent, clear codecov bug

---------

Co-authored-by: Juan Orduz <[email protected]>

* Allowing Custom Saturation & Lagging functions

Co-Authored-By: Carlos Trujillo <[email protected]>

* Small adding

Co-Authored-By: Carlos Trujillo <[email protected]>

* test commit to carlos branch

* hook up saturation class to lift method

* pull out last saturation function into method

* migrate the logic for tests

* reduce what is needed for a new class

* remove the noqa

* model docstring for inheritance

* rewrite of the components

* rewrite of the components

* change name to logistic

* map names for model_config

* switch out order

* Changes

* solving issues

* [pre-commit.ci] auto fixes from pre-commit.com hooks

for more information, see https://pre-commit.ci

* solving errors

* New class name

* [pre-commit.ci] auto fixes from pre-commit.com hooks

for more information, see https://pre-commit.ci

* Update pymc_marketing/mmm/transformers.py

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* pre-commit change

* Update pymc_marketing/mmm/models/components/base.py

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* Update pymc_marketing/mmm/models/components/saturation.py

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* Update pymc_marketing/mmm/models/components/lagging.py

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* Requested changes

* pre-commit changes

* Requested changes

* more changes

* use reserved parameter name

* Returning name and adding deprecation warning

* Re-structuring the budget optimizer

* Update pymc_marketing/mmm/components/adstock.py

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* Will recommendations

* Temporal comment

* test more assumed behavior

* more budget optimizer changes

* docstrings for classes

* small changes about l_max on adstock

* small addition

* Update pymc_marketing/mmm/delayed_saturated_mmm.py

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* temporal notebook copy

* update

* docstring

* adding missing

* Update pymc_marketing/mmm/components/adstock.py

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* Update pymc_marketing/mmm/components/adstock.py

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* Making mypy happy part 1

* Small example

* finally?

* small change

* docstrings

* removing mokeytype

* more docstrings

* Update pymc_marketing/mmm/transformers.py

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* tests for out of box saturation and adstocks

* test the passthrough

* Update pymc_marketing/mmm/components/adstock.py

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* Changes on hints

* modifications

Must be plt, ax

* notebooks addition

* Update notebook

* Saving model

* mock the fit and move tests around

* fix get_distribution tests

* Correct error

* Deprecation warning and new MMM class

Co-Authored-By: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* Small changes

* updates

* add a lookup for model saving

* fix tests based on recent changes

* Deleting decimals

* test suite

* Update tests/mmm/test_budget_optimizer.py

Juan's test suggestion

* Update tests/mmm/test_budget_optimizer.py

abs and not rel

* running notebooks

* adding hint

* initial docstring check

* update docstrings 1

* Modifying notebook

* use explicit adstock and saturation in MMM

* remove reference to DelayedSaturatedMMM

* request changes

* missing total

* modify docstring

* modify eval

* Small changes

* change

* changes

* import saturation in docstring

* pre-commit

---------

Co-authored-by: Carlos Trujillo <[email protected]>
Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>
Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>
Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

* plot_probability_alive_matrix

* docstrings

* plot_frequency_recency_matrix

* delete dead code

* docstring quick fix

updates:
- [github.com/astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit: v0.4.7 → v0.4.8](astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit@v0.4.7...v0.4.8)

Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

* Removed the comma after Schmittlein

* Added missing reference

* Removed extra colon

* changes init

* try fix regex

* add plotting methods

* add tests for new methods

* saturation support for additional variable dims

* consolidate the logic of sampling

* change warning

* workflow from a fitted model

* change order of tests

* suggestion to use names

* because of new data

---------

Co-authored-by: Juan Orduz <[email protected]>

* improve tests

* empty commit

* remove reduntant function

* type hint only

* more informative errors

* check for attr

* remove type ignore

* check for attr

* check for attr

* reduce indentation

* new error names

* some base logic and tests

* lookup function once

* add error handling

* implement for mmm and media transformations

* add examples

* add to documentation

* add to docstring

* tests for likelihood

* use deepcopy since keys are added

* set default dims and warn

* fix output_var

* migrate failing tests to model_config

* remove the moved test

* use deepcopy since keys are added

* add to docstrings from feedback

* fix handlers at initialize

updates:
- [github.com/astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit: v0.4.8 → v0.4.9](astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit@v0.4.8...v0.4.9)

Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

* initial notebook

* add to example

* push up some feedback

* change the number of channels

* updates

* final message

* add more feedback

* remove since wasnt working the way I wanted

* start addressing sphinx warnings and rendering issues

* forgot formatting comment

* Add numpydoc as dependency

* fix dataset type

---------

Co-authored-by: Juan Orduz <[email protected]>

* Allowing non center parametrization

* update notebook

* Adding example in docstring

* change

* Push code changes.

* A painful and ugly change!

The things one does for democracy!

* Missing parts!

* adding missing test 2D

* Missing raise

---------

Co-authored-by: Will Dean <[email protected]>

* fix typing

* empty

* empty

* empty

* dummy

* undo dummy

* empty

* remove noqa

* fix escape

* empty

* empty

updates:
- [github.com/astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit: v0.4.9 → v0.4.10](astral-sh/ruff-pre-commit@v0.4.9...v0.4.10)

Co-authored-by: pre-commit-ci[bot] <66853113+pre-commit-ci[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>

* utils.customer_lifetime_value

* expected_customer_lifetime_value

* WIP clv.models.gamma_gamma.py

* gamma_gamma API

* fixed circular import

* gamma_gamma tests

* delete tests/datasets/test_summary.csv

* clv test_utils.py

* remove expected_purchases(future_t=0)

* remove monetary_value arg

* WIP docstrings

* notebooks

* docstrings

* Revert "notebooks"

This reverts commit a3154d9.

* gamma-gamma notebook

* docstrings

* quickstart

* pareto_nbd fit warning

* pareto_nbd docstrings

* clv.utils docstrings

* gamma_gamma docstrings

* beta_geo docstrings

* CLV sections in README and index

* run notebooks init

* change kernel name

* change kernel name

* change kernel name

* rm docs

* add nb

* fix nb

* fig dpi

* update model object

* no output

* test mmm notebooks

* fix path

* graphviz

* sudo

* paralelize and Path

* reqs

* undo

* comments

* try budget allocation

* add quickstart

* ignore budget allocation

* add make command

* use make