MMM Case Study from PyData Global

[juanitorduz]

Closes #1014

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📚 Documentation preview 📚: https://pymc-marketing--1044.org.readthedocs.build/en/1044/

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All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests ✅

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  Coverage   95.56%   95.56%           
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  Files          39       39           
  Lines        4013     4015    +2     
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+ Hits         3835     3837    +2     
  Misses        178      178           

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cetagostini commented on 2024-10-07T14:30:21Z
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Nice! I would add a note just to mention that, although good as a business practice or for stakeholder management, you must be careful when adding these constraints because basically, by decreasing flexibility, you risk to not finding the most optimal solution.

For example, the true global minimum in our function might be outside these constraints, especially in cases where we add too many of them.

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cetagostini commented on 2024-10-07T14:30:22Z
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Could we mention how uncertainty increases given the new level of spending? Historically spending around display, for example, was 200K to 250K and we are recommending 350K or so. This is reflected in the posterior uncertainty when estimating the OOS.

ps: We can preface this by mentioning that this risk/best option dynamic will be something that will soon be added to the optimizer.

juanitorduz commented on 2024-10-17T19:15:59Z
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great point! added!

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cetagostini commented on 2024-10-07T14:30:23Z
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I think it would be interesting to make a comparison with total sales with and without optimization, with their respective intervals. What do you think? It should be relatively simple.

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wd60622 commented on 2024-10-16T20:51:11Z
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"guide you through"

trough -> through

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wd60622 commented on 2024-10-16T20:51:11Z
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only mmm? 😄

juanitorduz commented on 2024-10-17T19:09:25Z
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short and sweet ;)

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wd60622 commented on 2024-10-16T20:51:12Z
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I know dims="channel" is done automatically in the MMM class. Does having those dims explicitly here help solidify that the custom prior for saturation is one per channel?

Thoughts?

juanitorduz commented on 2024-10-17T19:13:24Z
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yes! I like the idea

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wd60622 commented on 2024-10-16T20:51:13Z
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I'm confused by the "11.8% <0 < 88.2%"

juanitorduz commented on 2024-10-17T19:18:17Z
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This is to compare about the zero value. I will clarify.

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wd60622 commented on 2024-10-16T20:51:14Z
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mos -> most

[wd60622]

Just the comment about the 80% then looks good! 🚀

[juanitorduz]

Thank you very much for all the feedback! 🚀