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Byproduct Mining Fallacy

Eric Voskuil edited this page Jul 15, 2019 · 29 revisions

There is a theory that to the extent Bitcoin mining can consume a necessary and otherwise unmarketable byproduct of production (i.e. waste), it reduces net energy consumption. Examples include unused natural gas and unused computing memory.

Given a byproduct market, the price advantage represents opportunity cost to each miner. Competition for the waste byproduct increases its price, potentially up to the level where the cost advantage is eliminated. In the interim this represents a mining profit opportunity.

The reduced cost of mining must result in increased mining so that its cost returns to the original level. Paradoxically, any reduced cost results in greater consumption. However the byproduct is otherwise "consumed" as waste. So its consumption in mining, even to a greater extent, does not represent any actual increase in overall consumption of the resource.

The movement of mining from the primary product to the waste byproduct increases the marketable supply (e.g. energy) or utility (e.g. computing memory) of the primary product. Given the assumption of unchanged remaining demand, these changes to supply or demand respectively imply lower price.

Bitcoin requires the consumption of resources in widespread use, as an aspect of its security. Energy for example is a factor of all production, along with time and labor. Such fundamental resources tend to increase in consumption given reduced price. Furthermore, given that energy is a factor in all production, the cost of other products (e.g. computing memory) also reduce to energy, time and labor - with labor itself representing energy cost (e.g. food production).

So given the implied reduced price, production expands, capital grows, and people become wealthier overall. The presumed reduction in overall energy consumption cannot be assumed, invalidating the theory.

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