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Assessment of wind speed stilling in the MPI Grand Ensemble

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MPI-GE wind stilling

article DOI

Code underlying analysis performed in

Wohland, J., Folini, D., Pickering, B., 2021. Wind speed stilling and its recovery due to internal climate variability. Earth System Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-29

If you content of this repository or code derived from it in academic work, please cite the above publication.

Figure overview

Figure Filename Creating python script
Fig. 1 attribution_maps.jpeg attribution.py:plot_attribution_maps
Fig. 2 contribution_histograms.jpeg attribution.py:plot_onshore_contribution_histograms
Fig. 3 scatter_gothr+gsecd_abs.jpeg attribution.py:plot_luh_vs_wind_speed_scatter
Fig. 4 LUH1/LUH_change_future_ref2000.jpeg LUH_plots.py:plot_future_LUH_change
Fig. 5 global_windspeeds.jpeg trend_maps.py:plot_global_windspeeds
Fig. 6 timeseries_picontrol_Europe.jpeg trends.py:plot_full_timeseries_with_trend_marks
Fig. 7a picontrol_wind_trends_Europe_5_20y.jpeg trends.py:plot_trend_histograms
Fig. 7b CMIP6/Ensmean_picontrol_wind_trends_Europe_5.jpeg trends.py:plot_pi_control_cmip6_trend_histograms
Fig. 8a historical_wind_trends_Europe_5_all.jpeg trends.py:plot_experiment_trend_histograms
Fig. 8b rcp26_wind_trends_Europe_5_all.jpeg trends.py:plot_experiment_trend_histograms
Fig. 8c rcp45_wind_trends_Europe_5_all.jpeg trends.py:plot_experiment_trend_histograms
Fig. 8d rcp85_wind_trends_Europe_5_all.jpeg trends.py:plot_experiment_trend_histograms
Appendix Fig. A1 box_timeseries_Europe.jpeg ensmean_timeseries.py:plot_ensemble_members_timeseries
Appendix Fig. A2 picontrol_HadISD_wind_trends_Europe_5_20y.jpeg trends.py:plot_trend_histograms
Appendix Fig. A3a picontrol_wind_trends_Europe_5_15y.jpeg trends.py:plot_trend_histograms
Appendix Fig. A3b picontrol_wind_trends_Europe_5_25y.jpeg trends.py:plot_trend_histograms
Appendix Fig. A4a picontrol_wind_trends_Europe_10_20y.jpeg trends.py:plot_trend_histograms
Appendix Fig. A4b picontrol_wind_trends_Europe_15_20y.jpeg trends.py:plot_trend_histograms
Appendix Figs. 5-7 CMIP6/{Model_name}_picontrol_wind_trends_Europe_5.jpeg trends.py:plot_pi_control_cmip6_trend_histograms

All figures can be created at once by running the function make_all_plots.py from the command line, assuming you are in the Anaconda environment given in this repository:

cd code
python make_all_plots.py [data_path] [plots_path] [--cache_path]

Where directories for input data and output plots are user-defined (default ../data and ../plots from the code directory). --cache_path can be also defined to store some intermediate processed data.

requirements.yaml can be used to create an Anaconda environment with all the necessary packages to run the scripts in this repository (including the command line tool cdo).

Input data

Executing scripts from this repository requires (a) downloading of the required input data and (b) preprocessing the data.

a) Downloads

To download the input, please follow the structure and recommendations given in the data subdirectories. The MPI-GE data can be downloaded using the provided wget scripts after you have registered at ESGF (see https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/user/add/?next=http://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/esgf-dkrz/ to create a new profile). The other downloads are explained in README.md files in the respective subfolders.

Input data is from 4 different sources:

  1. The Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE). Ref: DOI 10.1029/2019MS001639
  2. The Land Use Harmonization (LUH) Project. Ref: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2
  3. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Ref: DOI 10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016
  4. Zeng et al. (2019). Ref: DOI 10.1038/s41558-019-0622-6

b) Preprocessing

To speed up Python calculations, the MPI-GE ensemble means are pre-calculated using CDO (see code/preprocess/preprocess_MPI-GE.sh). They are stored in a subfolder ensmean of the respective experiment (e.g., rcp26/ensmean contains the ensemble mean of the rcp26 scenario).

Similarly, CDO is used to preprocess the CMIP6 data (see code/preprocess/preprocess_CMIP6.sh).

The preprocessed landmask based on MPI-GE is available in the data directory (data/runoff/landmask.nc), having been produced from raw data using code/preprocess/make_land_mask.py.

References

Maher, N., Milinski, S., Suarez‐Gutierrez, L., Botzet, M., Dobrynin, M., Kornblueh, L., Kröger, J., Takano, Y., Ghosh, R., Hedemann, C., Li, C., Li, H., Manzini, E., Notz, D., Putrasahan, D., Boysen, L., Claussen, M., Ilyina, T., Olonscheck, D., Raddatz, T., Stevens, B., Marotzke, J., 2019. The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 11, 2050–2069. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001639

Hurtt, G.C., Chini, L.P., Frolking, S., Betts, R.A., Feddema, J., Fischer, G., Fisk, J.P., Hibbard, K., Houghton, R.A., Janetos, A., Jones, C.D., Kindermann, G., Kinoshita, T., Klein Goldewijk, K., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Thomson, A., Thornton, P., van Vuuren, D.P., Wang, Y.P., 2011. Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. Climatic Change 109, 117–161. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2

Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G.A., Senior, C.A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R.J., Taylor, K.E., 2016. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937–1958. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016

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