Improve the predictions of the Creation Date tool (#18)

grammyjs · Aug 23, 2024 · f0b67d0 · f0b67d0
1 parent 940d15a
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diff --git a/deno.json b/deno.json
@@ -36,7 +36,6 @@
     "tailwind-merge": "https://esm.sh/[email protected]",
     "esbuild/": "https://deno.land/x/[email protected]/",
     "esbuild_deno_loader/": "https://deno.land/x/[email protected]/",
-    "ml-regression-polynomial": "https://esm.sh/[email protected]",
     "time_ago/": "https://deno.land/x/time_ago@v1/"
   },
   "compilerOptions": { "jsx": "react-jsx", "jsxImportSource": "preact" }

diff --git a/islands/CreationDate.tsx b/islands/CreationDate.tsx
@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ import { predictCreationDate } from "../lib/creation_date.ts";
 const hash = getHashSignal();
 const getId = () => decodeURIComponent(hash.value.slice(1));
 
-const data = signal<Date | null>(null);
+const data = signal<[string, Date] | null>(null);
 
 export function CreationDate() {
   const id = getId();
@@ -45,11 +45,14 @@ export function CreationDate() {
         <div class="flex flex-col">
           <Kv
             k="Creation Date"
-            v={`${data.value.toDateString()} (${timeAgo(data.value)})`}
+            v={`${
+              data.value[0] == ">"
+                ? "After "
+                : data.value[0] == "<"
+                ? "Before "
+                : "Approximately "
+            }${data.value[1].toDateString()} (${timeAgo(data.value[1])})`}
           />
-          <div class="opacity-50 text-xs pt-0.5">
-            Note: This is an estimate.
-          </div>
         </div>
       )}
     </div>

diff --git a/lib/creation_date.ts b/lib/creation_date.ts
@@ -1,58 +1,153 @@
-import { PolynomialRegression } from "ml-regression-polynomial";
-
 const entries = [
-  [1247_000_000, 1587375629],
-  [1111_000_000, 1582941722],
-  [1097_000_000, 1582423322],
-  [1000_000_000, 1571097600],
-  [989_000_000, 1579917722],
-  [915_000_000, 1582596122],
-  [909_000_000, 1568858522],
-  [850_000_000, 1557878400],
-  [755_000_000, 1548028800],
-  [782_000_000, 1546300800],
-  [728_000_000, 1543708800],
-  [617_000_000, 1529625600],
-  [539_000_000, 1515179434],
-  [495_000_000, 1512846634],
-  [400_000_000, 1499904000],
-  [392_000_000, 1509926400],
-  [370_000_000, 1492214400],
-  [257_000_000, 1481767322],
-  [234_000_000, 1464825600],
-  [200_000_000, 1451606400],
-  [150_000_000, 1434326400],
-  [100_000_000, 1429125034],
-  [55_000_000, 1408129834],
-  [10_000_000, 1413331200],
-  [7_679_610, 1389744000],
-  [2_768_409, 1383264000],
-  [1_000_000, 1380326400],
-  [100_000, 1375729834],
-  [1_000, 1373051434],
-  [1, 1373051434],
+  [1000000, 1380326400], // 2013
+  [2768409, 1383264000],
+  [7679610, 1388448000],
+  [11538514, 1391212000], // 2014
+  [15835244, 1392940000],
+  [23646077, 1393459000],
+  [38015510, 1393632000],
+  [44634663, 1399334000],
+  [46145305, 1400198000],
+  [54845238, 1411257000],
+  [63263518, 1414454000],
+  [101260938, 1425600000], // 2015
+  [101323197, 1426204000],
+  [103151531, 1433376000],
+  [103258382, 1432771000],
+  [109393468, 1439078000],
+  [111220210, 1429574000],
+  [112594714, 1439683000],
+  [116812045, 1437696000],
+  [122600695, 1437782000],
+  [124872445, 1439856000],
+  [125828524, 1444003000],
+  [130029930, 1441324000],
+  [133909606, 1444176000],
+  [143445125, 1448928000],
+  [148670295, 1452211000], // 2016
+  [152079341, 1453420000],
+  [157242073, 1446768000],
+  [171295414, 1457481000],
+  [181783990, 1460246000],
+  [222021233, 1465344000],
+  [225034354, 1466208000],
+  [278941742, 1473465000],
+  [285253072, 1476835000],
+  [294851037, 1479600000],
+  [297621225, 1481846000],
+  [328594461, 1482969000],
+  [337808429, 1487707000], // 2017
+  [341546272, 1487782000],
+  [352940995, 1487894000],
+  [369669043, 1490918000],
+  [400169472, 1501459000],
+  [616816630, 1529625600], // 2018
+  [681896077, 1532821500],
+  [727572658, 1543708800],
+  [796147074, 1541371800],
+  [925078064, 1563290000], // 2019
+  [928636984, 1581513420], // 2020
+  [1054883348, 1585674420],
+  [1057704545, 1580393640],
+  [1145856008, 1586342040],
+  [1227964864, 1596127860],
+  [1382531194, 1600188120],
+  [1658586909, 1613148540], // 2021
+  [1660971491, 1613329440],
+  [1692464211, 1615402500],
+  [1719536397, 1619293500],
+  [1721844091, 1620224820],
+  [1772991138, 1617540360],
+  [1807942741, 1625520300],
+  [1893429550, 1622040000],
+  [1972424006, 1631669400],
+  [1974255900, 1634000000],
+  [2030606431, 1631992680],
+  [2041327411, 1631989620],
+  [2078711279, 1634321820],
+  [2104178931, 1638353220],
+  [2120496865, 1636714020],
+  [2123596685, 1636503180],
+  [2138472342, 1637590800],
+  [3318845111, 1618028800],
+  [4317845111, 1620028800],
+  [5162494923, 1652449800], // 2022
+  [5186883095, 1648764360],
+  [5304951856, 1656718440],
+  [5317829834, 1653152820],
+  [5318092331, 1652024220],
+  [5336336790, 1646368100],
+  [5362593868, 1652024520],
+  [5387234031, 1662137700],
+  [5396587273, 1648014800],
+  [5409444610, 1659025020],
+  [5416026704, 1660925460],
+  [5465223076, 1661710860],
+  [5480654757, 1660926300],
+  [5499934702, 1662130740],
+  [5513192189, 1659626400],
+  [5522237606, 1654167240],
+  [5537251684, 1664269800],
+  [5559167331, 1656718560],
+  [5568348673, 1654642200],
+  [5591759222, 1659025500],
+  [5608562550, 1664012820],
+  [5614111200, 1661780160],
+  [5666819340, 1664112240],
+  [5684254605, 1662134040],
+  [5684689868, 1661304720],
+  [5707112959, 1663803300],
+  [5756095415, 1660925940],
+  [5772670706, 1661539140],
+  [5778063231, 1667477640],
+  [5802242180, 1671821040],
+  [5853442730, 1674866100], // 2023
+  [5859878513, 1673117760],
+  [5885964106, 1671081840],
+  [5982648124, 1686941700],
+  [6020888206, 1675534800],
+  [6032606998, 1686998640],
+  [6057123350, 1676198350],
+  [6058560984, 1686907980],
+  [6101607245, 1686830760],
+  [6108011341, 1681032060],
+  [6132325730, 1692033840],
+  [6182056052, 1687870740],
+  [6279839148, 1688399160],
+  [6306077724, 1692442920],
+  [6321562426, 1688486760],
+  [6364973680, 1696349340],
+  [6386727079, 1691696880],
+  [6429580803, 1692082680],
+  [6527226055, 1690289160],
+  [6813121418, 1698489600],
+  [6865576492, 1699052400],
+  [6925870357, 1701192327], // 2024
 ] as [number, number][];
 
-const x = entries.map((v) => v[0]);
-const y = entries.map((v) => v[1]);
-const regression = new PolynomialRegression(x, y, 5);
+entries.sort((a, b) => a[0] - b[0]);
 
-export function predictCreationDate(id: number) {
-  const r = regression.predict(id);
-  if (r <= 0) return now();
-  const d = new Date(r * 1_000);
-  if (isNaN(d.getHours())) return now();
-  if (d.getFullYear() < 2013) return now();
-  if (d.getFullYear() == 2013 && id >= 1_000_000_000) return now();
-  return d;
-}
-function now() {
-  const d = new Date();
-  d.setHours(0);
-  d.setMinutes(0);
-  d.setSeconds(0);
-  d.setMilliseconds(0);
-  return d;
+function parseRegistrationTime(
+  prefix: string,
+  reg_time: number,
+): [string, Date] {
+  return [prefix, new Date(reg_time * 1000)];
 }
 
-console.log(predictCreationDate(1739206386))
+export function predictCreationDate(id: number) {
+  for (let i = 1; i < entries.length; i++) {
+    if (id >= entries[i - 1][0] && id <= entries[i][0]) {
+      const t = (id - entries[i - 1][0]) / (entries[i][0] - entries[i - 1][0]);
+      const reg_time = Math.floor(
+        entries[i - 1][1] + t * (entries[i][1] - entries[i - 1][1]),
+      );
+      return parseRegistrationTime("~", reg_time);
+    }
+  }
+
+  if (id <= 1000000) {
+    return parseRegistrationTime("<", 1380326400);
+  } else {
+    return parseRegistrationTime(">", 1701192327);
+  }
+}