This repository analyzes errors in the short- and medium-term wind and load forecast for the Southwest Power Pool (SWPP) during the June 2023 wind lull event.
The input data needed to recreate this analysis is stored in the data directory.
Quick-look plots analyzing the data are stored in the plots directory.
- The medium-range forecasts of wind power are remarkably good out to 5 days and then diverge from observations. This is consistent with the general accuracy of weather forecasts.
- The load forecast is generally more accurate than the wind power forecast.
- Wind capacity factors during the lull period beginning on 3-June were historically low.
- Current wind capacity factors were derived by dividing the observed wind power by the estimated installed capacity of 32,000 MW in the SWPP footprint.
- Almost all the observed wind capacity factors from 4-June through 7-June fall below the 10th percentile of historical values simulated from 1980-2019.
