Yarlagadda et al. "Emissions leakage and economic losses could limit the effectiveness of deforestation-linked oil crop import restrictions"

Summary

Import restrictions on deforestation-linked commodities are considered strategies to reduce global deforestation and emissions. However, limited market share of importers imposing such restrictions and the potential for emissions leakage could reduce their effectiveness. Moreover, they could result in negative economic implications for producers and consumers. We quantify future emissions and economic implications of oil palm and soybean import restrictions. Current EU restrictions will likely have minimal impact due to the EU’s otherwise small and diminishing share of global palm and soy demand. If extended beyond the EU, such import restrictions could drive reductions in cumulative land-use change (LUC) emissions by 2050 in key oil crop exporting regions— up to 0.9% in Indonesia, 1.5% in the rest of Southeast Asia, 3.8% in Argentina and 6.7% in Brazil, relative to a scenario with no import restrictions. However, these key exporters could also face losses ranging $4.1-$61 billion in cumulative agricultural production revenue by 2050.

Journal reference - to be updated

Yarlagadda, B., X. Zhao, G. Iyer, T. Wild, N. Hultman, and J. Lamontagne. "Emissions leakage and economic losses could limit the effectiveness of deforestation-linked oil crop import restrictions"

Code and Data

GCAM Model Version and Input Files

Yarlagadda, B. (2024). Input data and model version for "Emissions leakage and economic losses could limit the effectiveness of deforestation-linked oil crop import restrictions". Zenodo.

Output data

Yarlagadda, B. (2024). Output data from "Emissions leakage and economic losses could limit the effectiveness of deforestation-linked oil crop import restrictions". Zenodo.

System requirements:

Software dependencies (and versions) for running GCAM, an open source model, are documented at: https://jgcri.github.io/gcam-doc/gcam-build.html

Installation guide:

Installation requirements for running GCAM are documented at: https://jgcri.github.io/gcam-doc/user-guide.html To install and compile GCAM, it typically takes 2-3 hours.

Demo:

To run the scenarios in this paper, use the exe/configuration.xml included in the input files. A subset of the expected output has been provided in the output dataset.

To reproduce the figures shown in the paper, use the script generate_paper_figures.R