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Update climate-risk.md
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matamadio committed Jul 21, 2023
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Recommended CCDR Global Scenarios and characteristics for adaptation and development planning.
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- **SSP1/RCP2.6:** emissions peak between 2040 and 2060, declining by 2100. This results in warming of 3-3.5 °C by 2100.
- **SSP2/RCP4.5:** emissions continue to increase through the end of the century, with resulting warming of 3.8-4.2 °C by 2100.
- **SSP3/RCP7.0:** models describe a large emission variability for this scenario. Warming is estimated at 3.9-4.6 °C by 2100.
- **SSP5/RCP8.5:** high emissions scenario resulting in warming of 4.7-5.1 °C by 2100.
- **SSP1-1.9 / RCP2.6:** emissions peak between 2040 and 2060, declining by 2100. This results in warming of 3-3.5 °C by 2100.
- **SSP2-4.5 / RCP4.5:** emissions continue to increase through the end of the century, with resulting warming of 3.8-4.2 °C by 2100.
- **SSP3-7.0 / RCP8.5:** models describe a large emission variability for this scenario. Warming is estimated at 3.9-4.6 °C by 2100.

Each climate scenarios predicts different spatial patterns, resulting into a range of possible futures in terms of intensities, and frequencies of natural hazards. Key climate variables connected to the changing patterns of precipitation and temperature are collected from the [Climate Change Knowledge Portal](https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/) and the [Copernicus Data Store](https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/sis-extreme-indices-cmip6).

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