diff --git a/docs/paper.bib b/docs/paper.bib index 3a9cb9da..8dafb315 100644 --- a/docs/paper.bib +++ b/docs/paper.bib @@ -412,3 +412,15 @@ @article{gilbert:1884 year={1884}, publisher={American Periodicals Series III} } +@article{Peirce:1884, + author = {C. S. Peirce}, + title = {The Numerical Measure of the Success of Predictions}, + journal = {Science}, + volume = {ns-4}, + number = {93}, + pages = {453-454}, + year = {1884}, + doi = {10.1126/science.ns-4.93.453.b}, + URL = {https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.ns-4.93.453.b}, + eprint = {https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.ns-4.93.453.b} +} diff --git a/docs/paper.md b/docs/paper.md index afb931bc..7be0ebca 100644 --- a/docs/paper.md +++ b/docs/paper.md @@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ Table: A **Curated Selection** of the Metrics, Tools and Statistical Tests Curre | | **Probability** |Scores for evaluating forecasts that are expressed as predictive distributions, ensembles, and probabilities of binary events. |Brier Score [@BRIER_1950], Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) for Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) (including threshold-weighting, see @Gneiting:2011), CRPS for ensembles [@Gneiting_2007; @Ferro_2013], Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Isotonic Regression (reliability diagrams) [@dimitriadis2021stable]. | -| **Categorical** |Scores for evaluating forecasts based on categories. |Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Rate , Success Ratio, Accuracy, Peirce's Skill Score, Critical Success Index (CSI), Gilbert Skill Score [@gilbert:1884], Heidke Skill Score, Odds Ratio, Odds Ratio Skill Score, F1 Score, FIxed Risk Multicategorical (FIRM) Score [@Taggart:2022a]. +| **Categorical** |Scores for evaluating forecasts based on categories. |Probability of Detection (POD), Probability of False Detection (POFD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Success Ratio, Accuracy, Peirce's Skill Score [@Peirce:1884], Critical Success Index (CSI), Gilbert Skill Score [@gilbert:1884], Heidke Skill Score, Odds Ratio, Odds Ratio Skill Score, F1 Score, FIxed Risk Multicategorical (FIRM) Score [@Taggart:2022a]. | | **Statistical Tests** |Tools to conduct statistical tests and generate confidence intervals. | Diebold-Mariano [@Diebold:1995] with both the @Harvey:1997 and @Hering:2011 modifications. |