gaussian_process.py

from __future__ import absolute_import
from __future__ import print_function
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

import autograd.numpy as np
import autograd.numpy.random as npr
from autograd.numpy.linalg import solve
import autograd.scipy.stats.multivariate_normal as mvn
from autograd import value_and_grad
from scipy.optimize import minimize


def make_gp_funs(cov_func, num_cov_params):
    """Functions that perform Gaussian process regression.
       cov_func has signature (cov_params, x, x')"""

    def unpack_kernel_params(params):
        mean        = params[0]
        cov_params  = params[2:]
        noise_scale = np.exp(params[1]) + 0.0001
        return mean, cov_params, noise_scale

    def predict(params, x, y, xstar):
        """Returns the predictive mean and covariance at locations xstar,
           of the latent function value f (without observation noise)."""
        mean, cov_params, noise_scale = unpack_kernel_params(params)
        cov_f_f = cov_func(cov_params, xstar, xstar)
        cov_y_f = cov_func(cov_params, x, xstar)
        cov_y_y = cov_func(cov_params, x, x) + noise_scale * np.eye(len(y))
        pred_mean = mean +   np.dot(solve(cov_y_y, cov_y_f).T, y - mean)
        pred_cov = cov_f_f - np.dot(solve(cov_y_y, cov_y_f).T, cov_y_f)
        return pred_mean, pred_cov

    def log_marginal_likelihood(params, x, y):
        mean, cov_params, noise_scale = unpack_kernel_params(params)
        cov_y_y = cov_func(cov_params, x, x) + noise_scale * np.eye(len(y))
        prior_mean = mean * np.ones(len(y))
        return mvn.logpdf(y, prior_mean, cov_y_y)

    return num_cov_params + 2, predict, log_marginal_likelihood

# Define an example covariance function.
def rbf_covariance(kernel_params, x, xp):
    output_scale = np.exp(kernel_params[0])
    lengthscales = np.exp(kernel_params[1:])
    diffs = np.expand_dims(x /lengthscales, 1)\
          - np.expand_dims(xp/lengthscales, 0)
    return output_scale * np.exp(-0.5 * np.sum(diffs**2, axis=2))


def build_toy_dataset(D=1, n_data=20, noise_std=0.1):
    rs = npr.RandomState(0)
    inputs  = np.concatenate([np.linspace(0, 3, num=n_data/2),
                              np.linspace(6, 8, num=n_data/2)])
    targets = (np.cos(inputs) + rs.randn(n_data) * noise_std) / 2.0
    inputs = (inputs - 4.0) / 2.0
    inputs  = inputs.reshape((len(inputs), D))
    return inputs, targets


if __name__ == '__main__':

    D = 1

    # Build model and objective function.
    num_params, predict, log_marginal_likelihood = \
        make_gp_funs(rbf_covariance, num_cov_params=D + 1)

    X, y = build_toy_dataset(D=D)
    objective = lambda params: -log_marginal_likelihood(params, X, y)

    # Set up figure.
    fig = plt.figure(figsize=(12,8), facecolor='white')
    ax = fig.add_subplot(111, frameon=False)
    plt.show(block=False)

    def callback(params):
        print("Log likelihood {}".format(-objective(params)))
        plt.cla()

        # Show posterior marginals.
        plot_xs = np.reshape(np.linspace(-7, 7, 300), (300,1))
        pred_mean, pred_cov = predict(params, X, y, plot_xs)
        marg_std = np.sqrt(np.diag(pred_cov))
        ax.plot(plot_xs, pred_mean, 'b')
        ax.fill(np.concatenate([plot_xs, plot_xs[::-1]]),
                np.concatenate([pred_mean - 1.96 * marg_std,
                               (pred_mean + 1.96 * marg_std)[::-1]]),
                alpha=.15, fc='Blue', ec='None')

        # Show samples from posterior.
        rs = npr.RandomState(0)
        sampled_funcs = rs.multivariate_normal(pred_mean, pred_cov, size=10)
        ax.plot(plot_xs, sampled_funcs.T)

        ax.plot(X, y, 'kx')
        ax.set_ylim([-1.5, 1.5])
        ax.set_xticks([])
        ax.set_yticks([])
        plt.draw()
        plt.pause(1.0/60.0)

    # Initialize covariance parameters
    rs = npr.RandomState(0)
    init_params = 0.1 * rs.randn(num_params)

    print("Optimizing covariance parameters...")
    cov_params = minimize(value_and_grad(objective), init_params, jac=True,
                          method='CG', callback=callback)
    plt.pause(10.0)