diff --git a/datasets/mmm_example.csv b/datasets/mmm_example.csv index 965ab056..d5ca9f3c 100644 --- a/datasets/mmm_example.csv +++ b/datasets/mmm_example.csv @@ -1,180 +1,180 @@ -date_week,y,x1,x2,event_1,event_2,dayofyear,t,sin_order_1,cos_order_1,sin_order_2,cos_order_2 -2018-04-02,3984.662237343649,0.31858001793594865,0.0,0.0,0.0,92,0,0.9999300657962057,-0.011826390691832589,-0.023651127245231586,-0.9997202729664083 -2018-04-09,3762.8717941170457,0.1123884764420599,0.0,0.0,0.0,99,1,0.9912685467787256,-0.13185851571739118,-0.2614143985111562,-0.965226663665613 -2018-04-16,4466.967388435149,0.2924002662869313,0.0,0.0,0.0,106,2,0.9682507501166718,-0.2499809690726521,-0.48408852163897587,-0.8750190302029955 -2018-04-23,3864.219372661741,0.07139855257508415,0.0,0.0,0.0,113,3,0.9312100364121947,-0.3644830148102912,-0.6788204829862355,-0.734304263829602 -2018-04-30,4441.625277747415,0.3867451535946977,0.0,0.0,0.0,120,4,0.8806828564301475,-0.47370635037968,-0.8343701235229537,-0.5512045872199277 -2018-05-07,3677.3965501776124,0.047170986123933556,0.0,0.0,0.0,127,5,0.8174009818249192,-0.5760691233798755,-0.9417589340994614,-0.3362887301766837 -2018-05-14,5067.546336868544,0.4242491048456278,0.0,0.0,0.0,134,6,0.742280907086982,-0.6700888411055113,-0.994788305609327,-0.10196189005174576 -2018-05-21,6079.099042190235,0.3339201745242034,0.8797818351192218,0.0,0.0,141,7,0.6564105761979381,-0.7544038410927472,-0.9903973200352558,0.1382503109109819 -2018-05-28,4954.205368585605,0.2530702847317296,0.0,0.0,0.0,148,8,0.5610336262283677,-0.8277930117131022,-0.9288394302558068,0.3704825404820963 -2018-06-04,5865.6765762742925,0.9380544157922965,0.0,0.0,0.0,155,9,0.4575313760742512,-0.8891934772070711,-0.8136678304455991,0.5813300798152042 -2018-06-11,5096.6330505085725,0.4252050727940623,0.0,0.0,0.0,162,10,0.3474028211842774,-0.9377159910299093,-0.6515303615068021,0.75862255966641 -2018-06-18,4991.542283144343,0.36314297707823523,0.0,0.0,0.0,169,11,0.23224292400907015,-0.9726578145718654,-0.451785789832884,0.8921264484954345 -2018-06-25,4688.584844704346,0.44149469629470317,0.0,0.0,0.0,176,12,0.11371951458594969,-0.9935128947338007,-0.22596360824801906,0.974135744004672 -2018-07-02,6536.34574051577,0.4231116264841024,0.9641868797648888,0.0,0.0,183,13,-0.00645086419810515,-0.9999791929590823,0.012901459949419653,0.9999167727021953 -2018-07-09,5030.983585083329,0.3283922492206611,0.0,0.0,0.0,190,14,-0.1265278168386827,-0.9919630595773397,0.25102184062588184,0.9679814231320736 -2018-07-16,4638.6908347231165,0.9219403026381182,0.0,0.0,0.0,197,15,-0.24477230089725957,-0.9695805901076308,0.47465294389193496,0.8801730414269229 -2018-07-23,4209.545798370782,0.3080155122670448,0.0,0.0,0.0,204,16,-0.3594718130884228,-0.9331559438780433,0.6708865180801575,0.741560031189844 -2018-07-30,4876.008389071623,0.9094852261606342,0.0,0.0,0.0,211,17,-0.46896519100763184,-0.8832166493127127,0.8283957292921138,0.5601432992463508 -2018-08-06,3906.1716890025896,0.25069864729904767,0.0,0.0,0.0,218,18,-0.5716666713027055,-0.8204859638785325,0.9380889596420651,0.34639443384336877 -2018-08-13,3549.8621224301833,0.23647327260080925,0.0,0.0,0.0,225,19,-0.666088855860977,-0.7458723993404063,0.993634586189866,0.11265127219562909 -2018-08-20,4025.433955372593,0.4031379321972751,0.0,0.0,0.0,232,20,-0.7508642533989489,-0.6604565640279754,0.9918264497026016,-0.12759425406472188 -2018-08-27,3223.306333206948,0.1471777190660976,0.0,0.0,0.0,239,21,-0.8247650844733614,-0.5654755126737576,0.9327689179559782,-0.3604748891327019 -2018-09-03,4079.652958724021,0.3630410142948742,0.0,0.0,0.0,246,22,-0.886721063082993,-0.46230483047981086,0.8198708615029215,-0.5725484874300667 -2018-09-10,4156.435573364624,0.14706649036726777,0.0,0.0,0.0,253,23,-0.9358348973349941,-0.35243871088460327,0.6596488896351408,-0.7515739101399981 -2018-09-17,3666.877226701928,0.09467043111309686,0.0,0.0,0.0,260,24,-0.9713952846837501,-0.23746831555846756,0.46135120399057644,-0.8872175982116481 -2018-09-24,3853.549205981304,0.2592453045714739,0.0,0.0,0.0,267,25,-0.9928872135356961,-0.11905873003405076,0.2364237814212147,-0.9716500376053581 -2018-10-01,3531.4719178669834,0.05748382488091669,0.0,0.0,0.0,274,26,-0.9999994220246925,0.001075151282798226,-0.0021503013227746654,-0.9999976880994382 -2018-10-08,3538.8824744975236,0.020646532790630445,0.0,0.0,0.0,281,27,-0.9926289059345094,0.12119346147073688,-0.24060026613222732,-0.970624289793482 -2018-10-15,4261.1744917720225,0.1656360489849638,0.0,0.0,0.0,288,28,-0.9708824104813836,0.23955655912092708,-0.46516249913190355,-0.8852253099642835 -2018-10-22,4604.517233770198,0.2140071414995498,0.0,0.0,0.0,295,29,-0.9350748843515574,0.3544502230989869,-0.6628750027453377,-0.7487300786901568 -2018-10-29,6484.976246026463,0.3605176919784586,0.8006231655964305,0.0,0.0,302,30,-0.8857249183835637,0.4642104791518923,-0.8223255775192096,-0.5690172620911411 -2018-11-05,5090.872437599736,0.12236855581330264,0.0,0.0,0.0,309,31,-0.8235472349556007,0.5672476988027229,-0.9343105477678196,-0.3564600964060307 -2018-11-12,6500.44070674565,0.9586839529289922,0.0,0.0,0.0,316,32,-0.749442336852196,0.6620696215153808,-0.9923660086146718,-0.12332763253296065 -2018-11-19,6434.702003197417,0.32197234398749053,0.0,0.0,0.0,323,33,-0.6644834655228552,0.7473029667054297,-0.9931409302238695,0.11692344809347308 -2018-11-26,7288.09549866718,0.2532340551371886,0.8535269034985401,0.0,0.0,330,34,-0.5699010576127617,0.8217133225960594,-0.9365905832039815,0.35042556906371136 -2018-12-03,5249.095623076754,0.06401197960764987,0.0,0.0,0.0,337,35,-0.46706492487743034,0.8842230238742036,-0.8259791204413983,0.5637007118984807 -2018-12-10,4284.737104057953,0.02365531995577752,0.0,0.0,0.0,344,36,-0.3574644155648614,0.9339267592294762,-0.6676911663366994,0.7444383832097442 -2018-12-17,5924.49679469673,0.18316456944023224,0.9885971199634361,0.0,0.0,351,37,-0.2426868445825954,0.9701046827361175,-0.4708632887360563,0.8822061909330864 -2018-12-24,7770.898864334025,0.9253022445653839,0.8704751059413773,0.0,0.0,358,38,-0.12439450483979998,0.9922328391893008,-0.2468566254334839,0.9690520143313219 -2018-12-31,6600.779460454854,0.9966581290617557,0.0,0.0,0.0,365,39,-0.004300592702982862,0.9999907524084426,-0.008601105865716179,0.9999630098048061 -2019-01-07,6003.922922839964,0.401689634181351,0.0,0.0,0.0,7,40,0.12012616518235049,0.9927586335250793,0.23851257519407645,0.9711394088771653 -2019-01-14,5660.6533288409655,0.17374546055942064,0.0,0.0,0.0,14,41,0.23851257519407645,0.9711394088771653,0.46325792256749165,0.8862235029485801 -2019-01-21,5872.741931712915,0.9553726446981964,0.0,0.0,0.0,21,42,0.35344467127408763,0.9354554315134165,0.6612634749656385,0.7501537286959042 -2019-01-28,6093.701781337998,0.3558894186650065,0.0,0.0,0.0,28,43,0.46325792256749165,0.8862235029485801,0.821100117812889,0.5707841943569038 -2019-02-04,3994.215758636757,0.0009291813348931144,0.0,0.0,0.0,35,44,0.5663619330814524,0.8241566360566663,0.9335418911179212,0.35846832151248087 -2019-02-11,4817.419326611659,0.4378156672047245,0.0,0.0,0.0,42,45,0.6612634749656385,0.7501537286959042,0.992098522791769,0.1254612333527367 -2019-02-18,7795.097809495298,0.9739763155567257,0.9748662021434801,0.0,0.0,49,46,0.7465881145324131,0.6652865452111115,0.9933900548258936,-0.11478762552212723 -2019-02-25,6447.2216669325935,0.9779039452046228,0.0,0.0,0.0,56,47,0.821100117812889,0.5707841943569038,0.9373419384643773,-0.3484108069446806 -2019-03-04,5540.679227096547,0.24814170375181738,0.0,0.0,0.0,63,48,0.8837203473619977,0.4680153284438345,0.8271893372462497,-0.5619233046832195 -2019-03-11,4949.832359251136,0.40562040929233517,0.0,0.0,0.0,70,49,0.9335418911179212,0.35846832151248087,0.6692903895412567,-0.7430009249440493 -2019-03-18,6379.898688795682,0.24904096314400193,0.9025728697123773,0.0,0.0,77,50,0.969843196967294,0.24372971360968387,0.47275920928627757,-0.881191653407483 -2019-03-25,4764.017185991239,0.053052484376441444,0.0,0.0,0.0,84,51,0.992098522791769,0.1254612333527367,0.248939808553767,-0.9685189578512203 -2019-04-01,4207.851401732056,0.06632172065883479,0.0,0.0,0.0,91,52,0.9999855506507186,0.005375731557583884,0.01075130776352193,-0.9999422030204416 -2019-04-08,4412.820266564049,0.09193146911854178,0.0,0.0,0.0,98,53,0.9933900548258936,-0.11478762552212723,-0.22805777122152024,-0.9736476020539838 -2019-04-15,4346.995203279954,0.28465256468271194,0.0,0.0,0.0,105,54,0.9724075561219969,-0.233288544075455,-0.45370308603134385,-0.891152910406309 -2019-04-22,6626.698312677127,0.3738453265433722,0.9943743116526119,0.0,0.0,112,55,0.9373419384643773,-0.3484108069446806,-0.6531601223269297,-0.757219819208313 -2019-04-29,5231.247790028053,0.3110337207908654,0.0,0.0,0.0,119,56,0.8887010478292913,-0.45848712914008805,-0.8149159841660796,-0.5795791048257605 -2019-05-06,3891.281865826965,0.010820059629968126,0.0,0.0,0.0,126,57,0.8271893372462497,-0.5619233046832195,-0.9296339319682695,-0.3684843993077793 -2019-05-13,6815.8201468315065,0.3258546929320144,0.0,1.0,0.0,133,58,0.753697664392914,-0.6572212950663319,-0.9906923101615609,-0.13612033862266704 -2019-05-20,5047.609610987757,0.4301608270402385,0.0,0.0,0.0,140,59,0.6692903895412567,-0.7430009249440493,-0.9945667569706337,0.1041007489354256 -2019-05-27,5292.315418181358,0.44218999936824227,0.0,0.0,0.0,147,60,0.5751899607119775,-0.8180198708443175,-0.9410336347451197,0.3383130181923076 -2019-06-03,5238.7323938430845,0.2689190501602237,0.0,0.0,0.0,154,61,0.47275920928627757,-0.881191653407483,-0.8331829385891785,0.5529974600700271 -2019-06-10,4994.210218605146,0.3844068918872162,0.0,0.0,0.0,161,62,0.36348161248290595,-0.9316013725767189,-0.6772399381909484,0.7357622347736532 -2019-06-17,4563.943101100069,0.30378077187773417,0.0,0.0,0.0,168,63,0.248939808553767,-0.9685189578512203,-0.4822058478963534,0.8760579434344277 -2019-06-24,4501.264804484543,0.22209246314207942,0.0,0.0,0.0,175,64,0.13079267585675877,-0.9914097417023039,-0.2593382659754047,0.9657865518844576 -2019-07-01,5634.63844969454,0.9840870166551501,0.0,0.0,0.0,182,65,0.01075130776352193,-0.9999422030204416,-0.021501372740813793,0.999768818762748 -2019-07-08,4823.482266871433,0.17816175340950158,0.0,0.0,0.0,189,66,-0.10944576864891511,-0.9939927684469582,0.21757660514828087,0.9760432474496963 -2019-07-15,4053.079382567054,0.1528626150244391,0.0,0.0,0.0,196,67,-0.22805777122152024,-0.9736476020539838,0.4440958041592184,0.8959793059709454 -2019-07-22,4489.401478341025,0.4328122093827745,0.0,0.0,0.0,203,68,-0.3433668739963876,-0.9392013574532082,0.6449812683237438,0.7641983796838978 -2019-07-29,6196.756038172703,0.38073589248479517,0.9579822914547782,0.0,0.0,210,69,-0.45370308603134385,-0.891152910406309,0.8086376511543122,0.58830701945127 -2019-08-05,3824.9202315000252,0.13381088108278694,0.0,0.0,0.0,217,70,-0.5574684374327888,-0.8301981337405215,0.9256185127518919,0.37845788253248963 -2019-08-12,3952.728448533676,0.2187159313729874,0.0,0.0,0.0,224,71,-0.6531601223269297,-0.757219819208313,0.9891715794849546,0.14676370920374052 -2019-08-19,5958.055092791563,0.32403468096257715,0.8860470611559919,0.0,0.0,231,72,-0.7393922635959241,-0.673274892250183,0.9956284932063294,-0.09340183893100905 -2019-08-26,6003.891666987636,0.36667669210506704,0.8419330528028328,0.0,0.0,238,73,-0.8149159841660796,-0.5795791048257605,0.94461655322236,-0.3281761224987403 -2019-09-02,4506.606831646783,0.15029875982385255,0.0,0.0,0.0,245,74,-0.8786374941610006,-0.47748942800283833,0.8390802290175667,-0.5440076922910445 -2019-09-09,7107.86871390425,0.931123776974778,0.9125365873080449,0.0,0.0,252,75,-0.9296339319682695,-0.3684843993077793,0.6851112019949135,-0.72843849493357 -2019-09-16,5686.193807776395,0.299199061864295,0.0,0.0,0.0,259,76,-0.9671667297977312,-0.2541427094613622,0.4915967464233612,-0.8708229664552752 -2019-09-23,4737.448085526191,0.15934818955851904,0.0,0.0,0.0,266,77,-0.9906923101615609,-0.13612033862266704,0.2697067454601279,-0.962942506826501 -2019-09-30,7010.952047870585,0.44928283576692973,0.9912325422606503,0.0,0.0,273,78,-0.9998699583618592,-0.016126573270657762,0.0322489522893041,-0.9994798672690922 -2019-10-07,4830.1898538758705,0.009183071790924091,0.0,0.0,0.0,280,79,-0.9945667569706337,0.1041007489354256,-0.20707028853384077,-0.9783260681421669 -2019-10-14,4771.362460057818,0.24061729469180781,0.0,0.0,0.0,287,80,-0.9748595108374125,0.22282040779479959,-0.4344371874948622,-0.9007021317403184 -2019-10-21,5998.8301484633885,0.03965521820749046,0.9558179864231228,0.0,0.0,294,81,-0.9410336347451197,0.3383130181923076,-0.6367278583821979,-0.7710886034432227 -2019-10-28,5829.018189367464,0.06828151137457239,0.9170446117167993,0.0,0.0,301,82,-0.8935790198239952,0.4489059314938798,-0.8022658445149573,-0.5969669293392242 -2019-11-04,5882.675998691713,0.2051752192727676,0.0,0.0,0.0,308,83,-0.8331829385891785,0.5529974600700271,-0.9214960976269942,-0.3883876183121974 -2019-11-11,7470.547012690224,0.4046401222557777,0.8090435195802299,0.0,0.0,315,84,-0.7607200913564104,0.6490800741100398,-0.9875365065492301,-0.15739011478661072 -2019-11-18,6745.587700705396,0.43911951912249264,0.0,0.0,0.0,322,85,-0.6772399381909484,0.7357622347736532,-0.9965751408026859,0.08269213223824079 -2019-11-25,5989.886239259287,0.20838424011424383,0.0,0.0,0.0,329,86,-0.5839514998577005,0.8117885474764608,-0.9480902797323667,0.3180012916278841 -2019-12-02,4756.549762115951,0.0354358814681045,0.0,0.0,0.0,336,87,-0.4822058478963534,0.8760579434344277,-0.8448805268402676,0.5349550405091178 -2019-12-09,8312.407544391639,0.9664746973777946,0.8696014864075076,0.0,0.0,343,88,-0.3734765374130716,0.9276396261490464,-0.6929032710826041,0.7210305520038851 -2019-12-16,6954.851763418655,0.32402918214875254,0.0,0.0,0.0,350,89,-0.2593382659754047,0.9657865518844576,-0.500930819336161,0.8654873276017405 -2019-12-23,8250.29234088,0.40066932530908983,0.9208528041747358,0.0,0.0,357,90,-0.14144406768794113,0.9899462489023781,-0.2800440484743428,0.9599871514317783 -2019-12-30,5836.582430586892,0.16442488949390638,0.0,0.0,0.0,364,91,-0.021501372740813793,0.999768818762748,-0.04299280405372191,0.9990753819405211 -2020-01-06,5742.570820382156,0.255204428776545,0.0,0.0,0.0,6,92,0.1030313790431788,0.9946781061893646,0.20496611396949535,0.9787690698649216 -2020-01-13,5918.941633642499,0.3868456103914863,0.0,0.0,0.0,13,93,0.22177215755648186,0.975098513039961,0.4324994021339788,0.901634220265486 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Press Ctrl + ```python import pandas as pd -from pymc_marketing import mmm +from pymc_marketing.mmm import DelayedSaturatedMMM data_url = "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/pymc-labs/pymc-marketing/main/datasets/mmm_example.csv" data = pd.read_csv(data_url, parse_dates=['date_week']) -) mmm = DelayedSaturatedMMM( date_column="date_week", channel_columns=["x1", "x2"], @@ -112,10 +111,6 @@ mmm = DelayedSaturatedMMM( "event_1", "event_2", "t", - "sin_order_1", - "cos_order_1", - "sin_order_2", - "cos_order_2", ], adstock_max_lag=8, yearly_seasonality=2,