mmm: A Manifold market maker bot

A simple market maker bot for Manifold. Finds inefficiencies on Manifold and bets on them.

NB: This is not a fully functional library but rather open sourcing a fun personal project in case anyone wants to build on this (or take individual ideas or parts). mmm was built iteratively while exploring Manifold and has been moving fast (with and like Manifold itself), so many functions might not work with the current version of Manifold. I stopped developing and using mmm when Manifold introduced a bot tax and I felt I was spending too much time on Manifold.

Features

Bet according to 538's predictions

What?:

• Scrapes 538's predictions for several sports
• Places bets on Manifold Markets according to those predictions
• Options:
  • bet size (use a fixed bet size or bet according to Kelly criterion)
  • avoid the tails (not much to gain)
  • maximum position size (to avoid being stuck with a large position)
  • ...

Why?:

Assumes that some fringe markets on Manifold are not efficient and extracts the mana gain for improving efficiency.

How?:

python3 all_538.py

Arbitrage

What?:

For a set of predefined markets tracking the exact same our complementary outcomes: Bet in such a way that prices converge and you make low-risk or even risk-free mana.

Why?:

Free mana, market efficiency.

How?:

python3 arbitrage.py

Random bets

What?:

• Finds one or more random markets
• Bets on one outcome according to existing probabilities

Why?:

• To test the bot
• To maintain streaks
• To harvest bonuses (e.g. for old markets or all markets of a specific user)

How?:

python3 bet_random.py

Installation

...

• add config.py with your credentials