The following file is a valid poll file for a poll for the city council of Oslo. It is based on the results of a poll done from 22--24 June 2015 by Norfakta for Høyre.
Area=NO-0301
==
Arbeiderpartiet=283
Høyre=248
Venstre=63
Miljøpartiet de Grønne=59
Fremskrittspartiet=53
Sosialistisk Venstreparti=39
Rødt=30
Kristelig Folkeparti=16
Senterpartiet=6
Other=3
The following call will use the poll file to run an analysis.
sapor analyze Høyre-Norfakta-20150624.poll
For this file, the log will look like below.
2015-08-07 18:18:46 INFO: Analyzing as a set of dichotomies...
2015-08-07 18:18:47 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥1%)
Arbeiderpartiet 50.0% 33.3%– 66.7% 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
Høyre 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
Rødt 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
Senterpartiet 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
Venstre 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
Other 16.7% 0.0%– 33.3% 100.0%
2015-08-07 18:18:47 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 33.3%.
2015-08-07 18:18:47 INFO: Number of data points: 3.
2015-08-07 18:18:47 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥1%)
Arbeiderpartiet 38.9% 33.3%– 44.4% 100.0%
Høyre 27.8% 22.2%– 33.3% 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
Rødt 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
Senterpartiet 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
Venstre 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
Other 5.6% 0.0%– 11.1% 100.0%
2015-08-07 18:18:47 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 11.1%.
2015-08-07 18:18:47 INFO: Number of data points: 9.
2015-08-07 18:18:47 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥1%)
Arbeiderpartiet 35.2% 29.6%– 40.7% 100.0%
Høyre 31.5% 25.9%– 37.0% 100.0%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 9.3% 3.7%– 11.1% 100.0%
Venstre 9.3% 3.7%– 11.1% 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 5.6% 3.7%– 11.1% 100.0%
Rødt 5.6% 0.0%– 7.4% 100.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 5.6% 3.7%– 7.4% 100.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 1.9% 0.0%– 3.7% 100.0%
Senterpartiet 1.9% 0.0%– 3.7% 100.0%
Other 1.9% 0.0%– 3.7% 100.0%
2015-08-07 18:18:47 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.70%.
2015-08-07 18:18:47 INFO: Number of data points: 27.
2015-08-07 18:18:48 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥1%)
Arbeiderpartiet 35.2% 32.1%– 39.5% 100.0%
Høyre 31.5% 27.2%– 34.6% 100.0%
Venstre 8.0% 6.2%– 9.9% 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 6.8% 4.9%– 8.6% 100.0%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 6.8% 4.9%– 9.9% 100.0%
Rødt 4.3% 2.5%– 6.2% 100.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.3% 3.7%– 7.4% 100.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 1.9% 1.2%– 3.7% 100.0%
Senterpartiet 0.6% 0.0%– 2.5% 3.4%
Other 0.6% 0.0%– 1.2% 0.1%
2015-08-07 18:18:48 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.23%.
2015-08-07 18:18:48 INFO: Number of data points: 81.
2015-08-07 18:18:50 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥1%)
Arbeiderpartiet 35.2% 32.1%– 39.1% 100.0%
Høyre 31.1% 27.6%– 34.6% 100.0%
Venstre 8.0% 6.2%– 10.3% 100.0%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.2% 5.8%– 9.5% 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 6.8% 4.9%– 8.6% 100.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.7% 3.3%– 6.6% 100.0%
Rødt 3.9% 2.5%– 5.3% 100.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 1.9% 1.2%– 3.3% 83.2%
Senterpartiet 0.6% 0.4%– 1.6% 1.9%
Other 0.6% 0.0%– 1.2% 0.1%
2015-08-07 18:18:50 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.412%.
2015-08-07 18:18:50 INFO: Number of data points: 243.
2015-08-07 18:18:56 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥1%)
Arbeiderpartiet 35.3% 32.1%– 38.8% 100.0%
Høyre 30.9% 27.8%– 34.3% 100.0%
Venstre 7.9% 6.2%– 10.0% 100.0%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.3% 5.8%– 9.5% 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 6.7% 5.1%– 8.6% 100.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 3.6%– 6.7% 100.0%
Rødt 3.8% 2.6%– 5.3% 100.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.2%– 3.3% 82.5%
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.3%– 1.6% 2.2%
Other 0.3% 0.1%– 1.1% 0.1%
2015-08-07 18:18:56 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.137%.
2015-08-07 18:18:56 INFO: Number of data points: 729.
2015-08-07 18:19:14 INFO: Most probable fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice MPF CI(95%) P(≥1%)
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 32.1%– 38.8% 100.0%
Høyre 31.0% 27.9%– 34.3% 100.0%
Venstre 7.9% 6.2%– 10.0% 100.0%
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 5.8%– 9.4% 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 5.1%– 8.6% 100.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 3.6%– 6.6% 100.0%
Rødt 3.8% 2.6%– 5.3% 100.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.2%– 3.2% 79.5%
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.3%– 1.6% 1.8%
Other 0.4% 0.1%– 1.1% 0.1%
2015-08-07 18:19:14 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.046%.
2015-08-07 18:19:14 INFO: Number of data points: 2,187.
2015-08-07 18:19:14 INFO: Analyzing as a polychotomy...
2015-08-07 18:19:15 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 13.9% 27.5% 27.5%– 27.5% 100.0% 17–17
Høyre 31.0% 11.9% 23.5% 23.5%– 23.5% 100.0% 14–14
Venstre 7.9% 2.1% 4.1% 4.1%– 4.1% 100.0% 2– 2
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 1.9% 3.7% 3.7%– 3.7% 100.0% 2– 2
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 1.6% 3.2% 3.2%– 3.2% 100.0% 2– 2
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 1.1% 2.1% 2.1%– 2.1% 100.0% 1– 1
Rødt 3.8% 0.6% 1.4% 1.4%– 1.4% 100.0% 1– 1
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5%– 0.5% 100.0% 0– 0
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%– 0.1% 0– 0
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 50.1% 34.8% 34.8%– 34.8% 0.0% 21–21 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 50.1% 33.4% 33.4%– 33.4% 0.0% 20–20 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 50.1% 31.0% 31.0%– 31.0% 0.0% 19–19 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 50.1% 29.7% 29.7%– 29.7% 0.0% 18–18 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 50.1% 26.7% 26.7%– 26.7% 0.0% 16–16 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 50.1% 35.0% 35.0%– 35.0% 0.0% 20–20 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 50.1% 31.3% 31.3%– 31.3% 0.0% 18–18 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 50.1% 31.3% 31.3%– 31.3% 0.0% 18–18 0.0%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 50.1% 28.1% 28.1%– 28.1% 0.0% 16–16 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 50.1% 4.6% 4.6%– 4.6% 0.0% 2– 2 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:15 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 100%.
2015-08-07 18:19:15 INFO: 1 simulations out of 1 data points, 1 / 198,285,846,287,760,000,000 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:19:15 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 29.9% 29.9% 29.9%– 29.9% 100.0% 18–18
Høyre 31.0% 25.6% 25.6% 25.6%– 25.7% 100.0% 15–15
Venstre 7.9% 6.1% 6.1% 6.0%– 6.1% 100.0% 4– 4
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4%– 5.4% 100.0% 3– 3
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%– 4.7% 100.0% 3– 3
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%– 3.2% 100.0% 2– 2
Rødt 3.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%– 2.2% 100.0% 1– 1
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%– 1.1% 100.0% 0– 0
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%– 0.1% 0– 0
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 68.9% 40.8% 37.8%– 40.8% 0.0% 24–24 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 68.1% 38.6% 36.0%– 38.6% 0.0% 23–23 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 66.6% 35.3% 33.2%– 35.3% 0.0% 21–21 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 65.9% 33.2% 31.4%– 33.2% 0.0% 20–20 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 64.4% 30.3% 28.5%– 30.3% 0.0% 18–18 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 69.6% 42.8% 38.9%– 42.8% 0.0% 25–25 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 67.4% 37.5% 34.4%– 37.5% 0.0% 22–22 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 67.1% 37.4% 34.3%– 37.4% 0.0% 22–22 0.0%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 65.4% 32.8% 30.4%– 32.8% 0.0% 19–19 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 53.1% 7.2% 5.9%– 7.2% 0.0% 4– 4 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:15 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.42%.
2015-08-07 18:19:15 INFO: 2 simulations out of 2 data points, 1 / 99,142,923,143,880,000,000 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:19:16 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5%– 30.5% 100.0% 18–18
Høyre 31.0% 24.8% 24.8% 24.7%– 24.8% 100.0% 15–15
Venstre 7.9% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4%– 10.5% 100.0% 6– 6
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1%– 8.1% 100.0% 5– 5
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9%– 5.9% 100.0% 3– 3
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%– 3.0% 0.0% 2– 2
Rødt 3.8% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6%– 7.6% 100.0% 5– 5
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%– 5.3% 100.0% 3– 3
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%– 0.5% 0– 0
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 74.1% 49.6% 48.2%– 49.6% 0.0% 30–30 100.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 41.6% 42.0% 40.3%– 42.9% 0.0% 25–25 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 70.4% 41.5% 40.6%– 41.5% 0.0% 25–25 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 34.4% 33.9% 33.5%– 35.3% 0.0% 20–20 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 31.4% 30.6% 30.5%– 32.2% 0.0% 18–18 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 76.4% 54.4% 52.5%– 54.4% 100.0% 32–32 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 72.6% 46.8% 45.2%– 46.8% 0.0% 27–27 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 72.6% 46.3% 44.9%– 46.3% 0.0% 27–27 0.0%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 69.6% 40.4% 39.0%– 40.4% 0.0% 24–24 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 56.6% 16.1% 13.0%– 16.1% 0.0% 9– 9 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:16 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 5.44%.
2015-08-07 18:19:16 INFO: 4 simulations out of 9 data points, 1 / 22,031,760,698,640,000,000 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:19:16 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 35.3% 35.3% 35.3%– 35.3% 100.0% 21–21
Høyre 31.0% 29.1% 29.1% 29.0%– 29.1% 100.0% 18–18
Venstre 7.9% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%– 5.0% 0.0% 3– 3
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5%– 11.5% 100.0% 7– 7
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7%– 8.7% 100.0% 5– 5
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0%– 5.1% 100.0% 3– 3
Rødt 3.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%– 2.5% 100.0% 1– 1
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%– 1.3% 100.0% 1– 1
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%– 0.5% 0– 0
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 76.9% 54.8% 53.8%– 54.8% 100.0% 32–32 100.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 75.1% 52.4% 50.3%– 52.4% 100.0% 31–31 100.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 43.1% 43.3% 42.4%– 43.7% 0.0% 25–25 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 70.1% 40.9% 40.2%– 40.9% 0.0% 24–24 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 68.4% 37.8% 36.5%– 37.8% 0.0% 23–23 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 55.6% 55.6% 55.0%– 56.4% 100.0% 34–34 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 44.9% 44.6% 44.1%– 45.6% 0.0% 27–27 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 44.1% 44.1% 43.8%– 44.6% 0.0% 27–27 0.0%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 35.6% 35.4% 34.7%– 36.4% 0.0% 22–22 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 6.4% 6.8% 5.7%– 7.0% 0.0% 4– 4 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:16 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 5.44%.
2015-08-07 18:19:16 INFO: 8 simulations out of 31 data points, 1 / 6,396,317,622,185,806,451 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:19:17 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 35.3% 35.3% 35.3%– 35.3% 100.0% 21–21
Høyre 31.0% 29.1% 29.1% 29.0%– 29.1% 100.0% 18–18
Venstre 7.9% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%– 5.0% 0.0% 3– 3
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5%– 11.5% 100.0% 7– 7
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7%– 8.7% 100.0% 5– 5
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0%– 5.1% 100.0% 3– 3
Rødt 3.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%– 2.5% 100.0% 1– 1
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%– 1.3% 100.0% 1– 1
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%– 0.5% 0– 0
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 77.1% 54.8% 54.3%– 54.8% 100.0% 32–32 100.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 75.9% 52.4% 51.7%– 52.4% 100.0% 31–31 100.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 43.6% 43.3% 43.1%– 43.7% 0.0% 25–25 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 41.6% 40.9% 40.9%– 42.3% 0.0% 24–24 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 37.4% 37.8% 36.5%– 38.3% 0.0% 23–23 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 56.1% 55.6% 55.6%– 56.4% 100.0% 34–34 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 44.6% 44.6% 44.1%– 44.9% 0.0% 27–27 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 44.1% 44.1% 43.8%– 44.6% 0.0% 27–27 0.0%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 35.9% 35.4% 35.2%– 36.4% 0.0% 22–22 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 6.4% 6.8% 5.7%– 7.0% 0.0% 4– 4 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:17 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 9.42%.
2015-08-07 18:19:17 INFO: 16 simulations out of 83 data points, 1 / 2,388,986,099,852,530,120 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:19:17 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 33.1% 33.1% 33.1%– 33.1% 0.7% 20–20
Høyre 31.0% 34.5% 34.5% 34.5%– 34.5% 100.0% 21–21
Venstre 7.9% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6%– 8.6% 99.3% 5– 5
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9%– 5.9% 0.7% 3– 3
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% 6.4%– 6.5% 100.0% 4– 4
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%– 4.1% 100.0% 2– 2
Rødt 3.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%– 2.4% 100.0% 1– 1
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%– 1.6% 0.7% 1– 1
Senterpartiet 0.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%– 2.7% 2– 2
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 48.0% 48.0% 47.9%– 48.0% 0.7% 28–28 0.7%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 45.6% 45.6% 45.5%– 45.7% 0.7% 27–27 0.7%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 42.2% 42.2% 42.1%– 42.3% 0.0% 25–25 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 39.7% 39.8% 39.7%– 39.8% 0.0% 24–24 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 41.1% 41.0% 40.6%– 41.6% 0.0% 25–25 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 56.9% 56.9% 56.7%– 57.0% 100.0% 34–34 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 53.6% 53.7% 53.2%– 53.9% 99.3% 33–33 99.3%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 50.9% 51.1% 50.8%– 51.1% 99.3% 31–31 99.3%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 44.6% 44.6% 43.7%– 45.2% 0.0% 27–27 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 12.6% 12.7% 12.5%– 12.9% 0.0% 8– 8 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:17 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 5.62%.
2015-08-07 18:19:17 INFO: 32 simulations out of 164 data points, 1 / 1,209,060,038,340,000,000 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:19:18 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 38.8% 38.8% 38.8%– 38.8% 98.7% 23–23
Høyre 31.0% 31.4% 31.4% 31.4%– 31.5% 100.0% 19–19
Venstre 7.9% 8.8% 8.8% 8.7%– 8.8% 100.0% 5– 5
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.4%– 5.5% 0.0% 3– 3
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6%– 6.6% 100.0% 4– 4
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%– 4.0% 100.0% 2– 2
Rødt 3.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%– 2.2% 100.0% 1– 1
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%– 1.5% 98.7% 1– 1
Senterpartiet 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1%– 1.2% 1– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 51.6% 51.6% 51.5%– 51.7% 98.7% 30–30 98.7%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 49.4% 49.4% 49.0%– 49.5% 0.0% 29–29 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 46.1% 46.2% 45.8%– 46.2% 0.0% 27–27 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 43.9% 44.0% 43.8%– 44.0% 0.0% 26–26 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0%– 38.1% 0.0% 23–23 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 53.8% 53.7% 53.7%– 53.8% 100.0% 32–32 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 49.4% 49.5% 49.3%– 49.6% 1.3% 30–30 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 48.3% 48.3% 48.1%– 48.4% 1.3% 29–29 1.3%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 41.6% 41.7% 41.5%– 41.8% 0.0% 25–25 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4%– 11.4% 0.0% 7– 7 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:18 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 5.72%.
2015-08-07 18:19:18 INFO: 64 simulations out of 290 data points, 1 / 683,744,297,544,000,000 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:19:19 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 38.8% 38.8% 38.8%– 38.8% 98.7% 23–23
Høyre 31.0% 31.4% 31.4% 31.4%– 31.5% 100.0% 19–19
Venstre 7.9% 8.8% 8.8% 8.7%– 8.8% 99.5% 5– 5
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.4%– 5.5% 0.5% 3– 3
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6%– 6.6% 100.0% 4– 4
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%– 4.0% 100.0% 2– 2
Rødt 3.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%– 2.2% 100.0% 1– 1
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%– 1.5% 98.7% 1– 1
Senterpartiet 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1%– 1.2% 1– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 51.6% 51.6% 51.5%– 51.7% 98.7% 30–30 98.7%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 49.3% 49.4% 49.3%– 49.4% 0.0% 29–29 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 46.2% 46.2% 46.1%– 46.2% 0.0% 27–27 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 43.9% 44.0% 43.8%– 44.0% 0.0% 26–26 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0%– 38.1% 0.0% 23–23 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 53.8% 53.7% 53.7%– 53.8% 100.0% 32–32 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 49.5% 49.5% 49.4%– 49.6% 1.3% 30–30 99.5%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 48.3% 48.3% 48.3%– 48.4% 1.3% 29–29 1.3%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 41.7% 41.7% 41.6%– 41.7% 0.0% 25–25 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4%– 11.4% 0.0% 7– 7 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:19 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 7.36%.
2015-08-07 18:19:19 INFO: 128 simulations out of 572 data points, 1 / 346,653,577,426,153,846 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:19:20 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 38.8% 38.8% 38.8%– 38.8% 98.7% 23–23
Høyre 31.0% 31.4% 31.4% 31.4%– 31.5% 100.0% 19–19
Venstre 7.9% 8.8% 8.8% 8.7%– 8.8% 99.5% 5– 5
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.4%– 5.5% 0.5% 3– 3
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6%– 6.6% 100.0% 4– 4
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%– 4.0% 100.0% 2– 2
Rødt 3.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%– 2.2% 99.8% 1– 1
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%– 1.5% 98.7% 1– 1
Senterpartiet 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1%– 1.2% 1– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6%– 51.6% 98.5% 30–30 98.5%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 49.4% 49.4% 49.3%– 49.4% 0.0% 29–29 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 46.2% 46.2% 46.1%– 46.2% 0.0% 27–27 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 44.0% 44.0% 43.9%– 44.0% 0.0% 26–26 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0%– 38.0% 0.0% 23–23 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 56.9% 53.7% 53.7%– 53.7% 100.0% 32–32 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 49.5% 49.5% 49.5%– 49.5% 1.5% 30–30 99.5%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 48.3% 48.3% 48.3%– 48.4% 1.5% 29–29 1.5%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 41.7% 41.7% 41.6%– 41.7% 0.0% 25–25 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4%– 11.4% 0.0% 7– 7 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:20 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.89%.
2015-08-07 18:19:20 INFO: 256 simulations out of 1,174 data points, 1 / 168,897,654,418,875,638 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:19:21 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 38.8% 38.8% 32.1%– 38.8% 97.7% 20–23
Høyre 31.0% 31.4% 31.4% 31.4%– 31.8% 100.0% 19–19
Venstre 7.9% 8.8% 8.8% 8.6%– 8.8% 98.1% 5– 5
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.4%– 6.8% 1.9% 3– 4
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.4%– 6.6% 98.9% 4– 4
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%– 4.5% 99.2% 2– 3
Rødt 3.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%– 3.1% 99.8% 1– 2
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%– 1.6% 98.0% 1– 1
Senterpartiet 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1%– 1.2% 1– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 51.6% 51.6% 50.1%– 51.6% 97.8% 30–30 98.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 49.4% 49.4% 46.9%– 49.4% 1.1% 28–29 1.1%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 46.2% 46.2% 42.5%– 46.2% 0.0% 26–27 0.1%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 44.0% 44.0% 39.7%– 44.0% 0.0% 24–26 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0%– 38.4% 0.0% 23–23 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 54.1% 53.7% 53.7%– 56.6% 99.9% 32–33 99.9%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 49.5% 49.5% 49.5%– 49.5% 2.5% 30–30 97.9%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 48.3% 48.3% 48.3%– 48.4% 2.0% 29–29 2.0%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 41.7% 41.7% 40.1%– 41.7% 0.0% 24–25 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4%– 11.4% 0.0% 7– 7 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:21 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 6.77%.
2015-08-07 18:19:21 INFO: 512 simulations out of 2,345 data points, 1 / 84,556,864,088,597,014 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:19:23 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 36.7% 36.7% 35.4%– 36.8% 100.0% 21–22
Høyre 31.0% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2%– 30.1% 100.0% 16–18
Venstre 7.9% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7%– 9.0% 15.8% 4– 5
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 9.5% 9.5% 4.8%– 9.6% 84.3% 3– 6
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.3%– 7.4% 100.0% 4– 4
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 4.9%– 5.2% 100.0% 3– 3
Rødt 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%– 4.2% 100.0% 2– 3
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 2.6% 2.6% 1.9%– 2.7% 100.0% 1– 2
Senterpartiet 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%– 1.4% 0– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 55.9% 55.9% 50.9%– 55.9% 100.0% 31–33 100.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 52.3% 52.3% 46.7%– 52.3% 84.2% 28–31 84.2%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 46.3% 46.3% 46.1%– 46.3% 0.0% 27–28 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 42.7% 42.7% 41.9%– 42.8% 0.0% 25–25 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 34.6% 34.6% 34.6%– 37.4% 0.0% 20–22 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 53.5% 53.5% 53.1%– 53.5% 100.0% 31–32 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0%– 49.7% 0.0% 26–29 0.4%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 44.0% 43.9% 43.9%– 48.3% 0.0% 26–28 0.0%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 36.5% 36.6% 36.5%– 41.0% 0.0% 22–24 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4%– 12.3% 0.0% 6– 7 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:23 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.25%.
2015-08-07 18:19:23 INFO: 1,024 simulations out of 4,690 data points, 1 / 42,278,432,044,298,507 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:19:26 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 36.7% 36.7% 31.8%– 36.8% 99.9% 19–22
Høyre 31.0% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2%– 30.9% 100.0% 16–18
Venstre 7.9% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7%– 9.0% 19.4% 4– 5
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 9.5% 9.5% 4.8%– 9.6% 85.0% 3– 6
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 7.4% 7.4% 7.3%– 7.8% 99.9% 4– 5
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8%– 5.2% 99.1% 3– 3
Rødt 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%– 4.2% 99.7% 2– 3
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 2.6% 2.6% 1.3%– 2.7% 96.6% 1– 2
Senterpartiet 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%– 2.1% 0– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 50.9% 55.9% 50.3%– 55.9% 99.2% 30–33 99.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 52.3% 52.3% 46.6%– 52.3% 80.4% 28–31 80.4%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 46.3% 46.3% 42.5%– 46.3% 0.0% 25–28 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 42.7% 42.7% 38.7%– 42.8% 0.0% 23–25 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 34.6% 34.6% 34.6%– 38.7% 0.0% 20–23 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 53.5% 53.5% 53.1%– 56.7% 100.0% 31–34 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 49.7% 45.0% 45.0%– 51.0% 3.4% 26–30 4.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 44.0% 43.9% 43.9%– 48.9% 0.1% 26–29 0.3%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 36.5% 36.6% 36.5%– 41.1% 0.0% 22–24 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4%– 12.3% 0.0% 6– 7 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:26 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 4.94%.
2015-08-07 18:19:26 INFO: 2,048 simulations out of 9,461 data points, 1 / 20,958,233,409,550,787 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:19:31 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 36.7% 36.7% 31.8%– 36.8% 99.5% 19–22
Høyre 31.0% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2%– 30.9% 100.0% 16–18
Venstre 7.9% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7%– 9.4% 23.0% 4– 6
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 9.5% 9.5% 4.8%– 9.6% 81.2% 3– 6
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 7.4% 7.4% 6.9%– 7.8% 99.4% 4– 5
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 4.6%– 5.2% 98.5% 3– 3
Rødt 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%– 4.5% 99.1% 2– 3
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 2.6% 2.6% 1.3%– 2.7% 96.7% 1– 2
Senterpartiet 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9%– 2.1% 0– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 50.3% 55.9% 50.1%– 55.9% 99.0% 29–33 97.2%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 52.3% 52.3% 46.2%– 52.3% 76.8% 27–31 76.8%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 46.3% 46.3% 42.5%– 46.5% 0.0% 25–28 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 42.7% 42.7% 38.7%– 42.8% 0.0% 23–25 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 34.6% 34.6% 34.6%– 38.7% 0.0% 20–23 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 55.7% 53.5% 52.8%– 56.7% 100.0% 31–34 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 49.7% 45.0% 45.0%– 51.0% 5.1% 26–30 5.7%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 44.0% 43.9% 43.9%– 48.9% 0.2% 26–29 2.0%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 36.5% 36.6% 36.5%– 42.0% 0.0% 22–26 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 12.3% 10.4% 10.4%– 12.3% 0.0% 6– 7 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:31 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.79%.
2015-08-07 18:19:31 INFO: 4,096 simulations out of 18,996 data points, 1 / 10,438,294,708,768,161 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:19:39 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 34.7% 34.7% 31.8%– 38.2% 96.1% 19–23
Høyre 31.0% 30.6% 30.6% 25.9%– 32.9% 100.0% 15–20
Venstre 7.9% 9.2% 9.2% 6.7%– 9.2% 80.7% 4– 6
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 8.7% 8.7% 4.8%– 9.6% 88.8% 3– 6
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 5.8% 5.8% 5.2%– 9.1% 53.3% 3– 5
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 6.0% 6.0% 3.2%– 6.4% 73.7% 2– 4
Rødt 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%– 5.8% 99.4% 2– 3
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%– 2.8% 98.9% 1– 2
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%– 1.6% 0– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 52.8% 52.8% 49.8%– 55.9% 95.9% 30–33 97.9%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 49.8% 49.8% 46.1%– 52.3% 19.2% 28–31 64.9%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 44.1% 44.1% 43.4%– 47.8% 0.0% 25–29 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 41.1% 41.1% 39.0%– 43.2% 0.0% 23–26 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 34.6% 36.4% 34.6%– 38.6% 0.0% 20–23 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 55.2% 55.7% 51.8%– 55.7% 100.0% 30–34 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 49.7% 47.4% 45.0%– 50.3% 5.0% 26–30 3.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 48.3% 47.0% 43.9%– 49.2% 1.4% 26–29 1.9%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 36.5% 41.2% 36.0%– 44.0% 0.0% 21–26 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 11.0% 11.0% 10.4%– 12.3% 0.0% 6– 7 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:39 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.38%.
2015-08-07 18:19:39 INFO: 8,192 simulations out of 37,868 data points, 1 / 5,236,237,622,471,743 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:19:59 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 35.0% 35.0% 34.7%– 38.6% 99.8% 21–23
Høyre 31.0% 28.7% 28.7% 28.1%– 32.3% 100.0% 17–19
Venstre 7.9% 8.5% 8.5% 7.5%– 9.0% 79.7% 4– 5
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0%– 8.7% 98.4% 4– 5
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 7.0% 7.0% 5.3%– 7.5% 97.8% 3– 4
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 5.8% 5.8% 4.4%– 5.8% 98.5% 3– 4
Rødt 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7%– 4.3% 99.9% 2– 2
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%– 2.1% 99.8% 1– 1
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%– 1.3% 0– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 52.8% 53.4% 51.1%– 54.7% 99.8% 31–33 99.8%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 49.8% 49.4% 48.4%– 51.7% 17.9% 29–31 91.3%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 44.1% 45.4% 44.1%– 46.7% 0.0% 27–28 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 41.1% 41.4% 41.0%– 43.6% 0.0% 25–26 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 35.7% 35.7% 35.4%– 38.0% 0.0% 21–22 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 54.0% 54.0% 53.0%– 55.2% 100.0% 31–32 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 46.6% 46.6% 45.6%– 49.3% 0.3% 26–28 0.2%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 46.0% 46.0% 45.0%– 48.2% 0.1% 26–28 0.1%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 39.0% 39.0% 37.6%– 42.5% 0.0% 22–25 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 11.0% 11.0% 10.0%– 11.4% 0.0% 5– 7 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:19:59 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.87%.
2015-08-07 18:19:59 INFO: 16,384 simulations out of 75,853 data points, 1 / 2,614,080,475,231,829 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:20:33 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 35.0% 35.0% 34.7%– 38.6% 99.4% 21–23
Høyre 31.0% 28.7% 28.7% 28.1%– 32.3% 100.0% 17–19
Venstre 7.9% 8.5% 8.5% 7.0%– 9.0% 72.1% 4– 5
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0%– 8.7% 97.9% 4– 5
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 7.0% 7.0% 4.9%– 7.5% 97.3% 3– 4
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 5.8% 5.8% 4.4%– 5.8% 97.5% 3– 4
Rødt 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7%– 4.8% 99.6% 2– 3
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.4%– 2.5% 99.8% 1– 1
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4%– 1.3% 0– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 52.8% 53.4% 51.1%– 54.7% 99.2% 31–33 99.3%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 49.8% 49.4% 48.3%– 51.7% 25.4% 29–31 90.3%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 44.1% 45.4% 44.1%– 46.7% 0.0% 27–28 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 41.1% 41.4% 41.0%– 43.6% 0.0% 25–26 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 35.7% 35.7% 35.4%– 38.0% 0.0% 21–22 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 55.2% 54.0% 53.0%– 55.7% 100.0% 31–32 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 46.3% 46.6% 45.5%– 49.3% 0.9% 26–28 0.7%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 46.0% 46.0% 44.9%– 48.2% 0.6% 26–28 0.6%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 40.6% 39.0% 37.6%– 42.5% 0.0% 22–25 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 11.0% 11.0% 10.0%– 11.4% 0.0% 5– 7 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:20:33 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.51%.
2015-08-07 18:20:33 INFO: 32,768 simulations out of 151,494 data points, 1 / 1,308,869,303,654,006 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:21:52 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 35.0% 35.0% 33.9%– 38.6% 98.9% 20–23
Høyre 31.0% 28.7% 28.7% 27.9%– 32.3% 100.0% 17–19
Venstre 7.9% 8.5% 8.5% 6.8%– 9.7% 72.1% 4– 6
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0%– 8.8% 95.6% 4– 5
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 7.0% 7.0% 4.8%– 7.7% 92.8% 3– 5
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 5.8% 5.8% 3.9%– 6.8% 96.2% 2– 4
Rødt 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7%– 5.0% 99.5% 2– 3
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.2%– 2.7% 99.1% 1– 2
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4%– 1.6% 0– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 53.4% 53.4% 51.1%– 54.8% 98.8% 30–33 98.8%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 49.9% 49.4% 47.6%– 51.7% 25.6% 28–31 80.7%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 44.1% 45.4% 44.1%– 47.5% 0.0% 26–28 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 42.5% 41.4% 40.6%– 43.6% 0.0% 24–26 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 35.7% 35.7% 34.6%– 38.0% 0.0% 20–23 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 51.8% 54.0% 51.8%– 55.7% 100.0% 31–33 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 46.3% 46.6% 45.2%– 49.3% 1.3% 26–29 1.3%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 44.5% 46.0% 44.4%– 48.2% 1.0% 26–29 1.2%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 38.0% 39.0% 37.6%– 42.6% 0.0% 22–26 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 11.0% 11.0% 9.3%– 13.2% 0.0% 5– 8 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:21:52 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.33%.
2015-08-07 18:21:52 INFO: 65,536 simulations out of 303,147 data points, 1 / 654,091,402,150,639 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:24:42 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 35.0% 35.0% 32.0%– 39.2% 93.6% 19–24
Høyre 31.0% 28.7% 28.7% 26.8%– 34.6% 100.0% 16–21
Venstre 7.9% 8.5% 8.5% 6.3%– 9.7% 62.0% 4– 6
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 8.0% 8.0% 5.8%– 8.8% 91.8% 3– 5
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 7.0% 7.0% 4.8%– 8.0% 89.7% 3– 5
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 5.8% 5.8% 3.9%– 6.4% 94.3% 2– 4
Rødt 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7%– 5.0% 99.2% 2– 3
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.2%– 3.0% 99.1% 1– 2
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4%– 1.8% 0– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 49.7% 53.4% 48.4%– 56.2% 92.4% 28–33 93.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 45.2% 49.4% 44.9%– 52.2% 40.2% 26–31 72.8%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 46.7% 45.4% 41.2%– 48.6% 0.0% 24–29 0.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 37.9% 41.4% 37.5%– 44.8% 0.0% 22–27 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 35.7% 35.7% 34.1%– 41.2% 0.0% 20–25 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 50.8% 54.0% 50.8%– 58.6% 100.0% 30–35 100.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 45.4% 46.6% 44.2%– 52.2% 7.9% 26–31 7.1%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 43.8% 46.0% 43.4%– 51.3% 6.1% 26–31 6.9%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 36.7% 39.0% 36.6%– 44.6% 0.0% 22–27 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 11.0% 11.0% 8.3%– 13.2% 0.0% 5– 8 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:24:42 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.10%.
2015-08-07 18:24:42 INFO: 131,072 simulations out of 606,334 data points, 1 / 327,024,125,791,659 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:31:12 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 35.0% 35.0% 31.9%– 38.9% 92.8% 19–23
Høyre 31.0% 28.7% 28.7% 27.1%– 34.6% 100.0% 16–21
Venstre 7.9% 8.5% 8.5% 6.1%– 10.1% 68.4% 4– 6
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 8.0% 8.0% 5.3%– 8.7% 79.6% 3– 5
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 7.0% 7.0% 4.9%– 8.2% 91.8% 3– 5
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 5.8% 5.8% 3.7%– 6.4% 89.4% 2– 4
Rødt 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7%– 5.4% 97.7% 2– 3
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.2%– 3.4% 99.1% 1– 2
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3%– 1.7% 0– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 49.7% 53.4% 48.1%– 56.2% 83.3% 28–33 77.7%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 50.0% 49.4% 44.6%– 52.2% 27.1% 26–31 46.8%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 46.7% 45.4% 41.2%– 48.7% 0.1% 24–29 0.5%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 38.1% 41.4% 37.5%– 44.8% 0.0% 22–27 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 35.7% 35.7% 33.7%– 41.2% 0.0% 20–25 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 55.8% 54.0% 50.8%– 58.6% 99.6% 30–35 99.5%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 49.9% 46.6% 44.2%– 52.2% 22.7% 26–31 22.9%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 49.3% 46.0% 43.4%– 51.3% 14.6% 26–31 22.2%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 42.0% 39.0% 36.6%– 44.8% 0.0% 22–27 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 11.0% 11.0% 8.3%– 13.2% 0.0% 5– 8 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:31:12 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 3.66%.
2015-08-07 18:31:12 INFO: 262,144 simulations out of 1,212,753 data points, 1 / 163,500,602,585,819 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 18:44:09 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 36.5% 36.5% 32.2%– 38.6% 96.0% 19–23
Høyre 31.0% 30.5% 30.5% 27.1%– 33.9% 100.0% 16–21
Venstre 7.9% 8.9% 8.9% 6.2%– 10.0% 77.2% 4– 6
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 6.2% 6.2% 5.6%– 8.7% 66.0% 3– 5
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 6.6% 6.7% 4.8%– 8.1% 86.4% 3– 5
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 4.1% 4.1% 3.7%– 6.4% 85.7% 2– 4
Rødt 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 2.7%– 5.4% 97.9% 2– 3
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 1.3%– 3.3% 97.4% 1– 2
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.3%– 1.6% 0– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 49.7% 51.4% 48.4%– 55.6% 91.0% 28–33 88.1%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 47.2% 47.6% 44.9%– 52.1% 20.6% 26–31 31.8%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 45.3% 45.1% 41.7%– 48.2% 0.1% 25–29 0.2%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 43.8% 41.4% 37.9%– 44.4% 0.0% 22–26 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 37.1% 37.1% 34.1%– 40.6% 0.0% 20–24 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 54.4% 54.5% 51.2%– 57.7% 99.8% 30–34 99.8%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 45.4% 49.0% 44.6%– 51.8% 13.2% 26–31 12.7%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 44.9% 48.3% 43.8%– 51.2% 7.6% 26–31 11.8%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 40.6% 41.6% 36.7%– 44.6% 0.0% 22–27 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 11.0% 11.9% 9.1%– 13.2% 0.0% 5– 8 0.0%
2015-08-07 18:44:09 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 1.78%.
2015-08-07 18:44:09 INFO: 524,288 simulations out of 2,425,652 data points, 1 / 81,745,380,742,068 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 19:11:27 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 36.5% 35.0% 31.8%– 38.6% 94.5% 19–23
Høyre 31.0% 30.5% 30.5% 27.2%– 34.0% 100.0% 16–20
Venstre 7.9% 8.9% 8.9% 6.2%– 10.0% 62.9% 4– 6
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 7.8% 7.8% 5.6%– 9.2% 68.0% 3– 5
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 6.9% 6.7% 5.0%– 8.4% 90.5% 3– 5
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 5.3% 5.3% 3.6%– 6.4% 85.5% 2– 4
Rødt 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 2.7%– 5.3% 98.1% 2– 3
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 1.1%– 3.2% 97.7% 1– 2
Senterpartiet 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3%– 1.6% 0– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 55.1% 51.4% 48.4%– 55.6% 87.8% 28–33 83.8%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 50.6% 47.6% 44.8%– 52.0% 22.0% 26–31 25.0%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 41.3% 45.1% 41.1%– 48.1% 0.1% 24–28 0.2%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 40.2% 41.4% 37.6%– 44.4% 0.0% 22–26 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 37.1% 37.1% 34.0%– 41.0% 0.0% 20–25 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 57.2% 54.5% 51.3%– 58.6% 99.8% 31–35 99.8%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 45.4% 49.5% 44.6%– 51.8% 16.3% 26–31 17.4%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 44.9% 48.3% 43.8%– 51.1% 8.1% 26–31 16.0%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 41.4% 41.6% 37.0%– 44.0% 0.0% 22–26 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 11.0% 11.9% 8.9%– 13.1% 0.0% 5– 8 0.0%
2015-08-07 19:11:27 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 2.56%.
2015-08-07 19:11:27 INFO: 1,048,576 simulations out of 4,851,507 data points, 1 / 40,870,980,148,593 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 20:06:39 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 34.5% 34.0% 31.6%– 38.6% 94.2% 19–23
Høyre 31.0% 30.6% 30.6% 27.4%– 34.0% 100.0% 16–20
Venstre 7.9% 8.9% 8.9% 6.1%– 10.0% 60.2% 4– 6
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 8.0% 7.4% 5.6%– 9.2% 70.7% 3– 6
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 6.9% 6.9% 5.1%– 8.4% 91.9% 3– 5
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 3.5%– 6.4% 82.7% 2– 4
Rødt 3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 2.7%– 5.3% 98.0% 2– 3
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.2%– 3.3% 97.6% 1– 2
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3%– 1.6% 0– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 49.7% 51.3% 48.7%– 55.5% 88.2% 28–33 86.5%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 48.0% 47.6% 44.9%– 51.8% 16.2% 26–31 19.6%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 43.8% 43.9% 41.2%– 48.1% 0.1% 24–28 0.2%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 40.2% 41.4% 37.6%– 44.3% 0.0% 22–26 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 37.1% 37.5% 34.1%– 40.8% 0.0% 20–25 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 56.7% 55.3% 51.4%– 58.3% 99.8% 31–35 99.8%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 49.7% 49.5% 44.8%– 51.6% 15.9% 26–31 16.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 44.9% 48.0% 44.0%– 50.8% 6.6% 26–31 13.3%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 41.4% 41.6% 37.3%– 44.1% 0.0% 22–27 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 11.0% 11.0% 8.8%– 13.2% 0.0% 5– 8 0.0%
2015-08-07 20:06:39 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.686%.
2015-08-07 20:06:39 INFO: 2,097,152 simulations out of 9,703,300 data points, 1 / 20,434,887,748,267 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).
2015-08-07 22:09:03 INFO: Most probable rounded fractions, fractions and 95% confidence intervals:
Choice Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>↓) Seats
Arbeiderpartiet 35.4% 34.0% 34.0% 31.7%– 38.5% 94.0% 19–23
Høyre 31.0% 31.6% 31.6% 27.5%– 33.9% 100.0% 16–20
Venstre 7.9% 8.4% 8.4% 6.1%– 9.8% 59.1% 4– 6
Miljøpartiet de Grønne 7.4% 7.9% 7.9% 5.6%– 9.2% 71.3% 3– 6
Fremskrittspartiet 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 5.1%– 8.4% 92.8% 3– 5
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 4.9% 5.3% 5.2% 3.5%– 6.6% 83.5% 2– 4
Rødt 3.8% 3.3% 3.5% 2.7%– 5.3% 98.0% 2– 3
Kristelig Folkeparti 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.2%– 3.2% 98.0% 1– 2
Senterpartiet 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3%– 1.6% 0– 1
Coalition Result MPRF MPF CI(95%) P(>50%) Seats P(>50%)
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 52.1% 48.4% 51.5% 48.7%– 55.5% 89.3% 29–33 86.9%
Arbeiderpartiet + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 48.4% 48.0% 48.0% 44.9%– 51.8% 18.6% 26–31 19.5%
Arbeiderpartiet + Rødt + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 44.8% 41.6% 43.6% 41.2%– 48.0% 0.1% 24–28 0.2%
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti 41.0% 41.0% 40.1% 37.6%– 44.4% 0.0% 22–26 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre 37.6% 36.8% 36.8% 34.1%– 40.7% 0.0% 20–25 0.0%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Miljøpartiet de Grønne + Venstre 54.9% 53.4% 56.1% 51.5%– 58.3% 99.7% 31–35 99.8%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 48.2% 49.7% 49.1% 44.8%– 51.6% 14.3% 26–31 15.6%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 47.5% 44.9% 48.2% 43.9%– 50.8% 6.0% 26–30 12.8%
Høyre + Kristelig Folkeparti + Venstre 40.9% 41.4% 41.7% 37.3%– 44.1% 0.0% 22–27 0.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre 10.6% 11.0% 11.0% 8.8%– 13.1% 0.0% 5– 8 0.0%
2015-08-07 22:09:03 INFO: Error estimate: ε ≤ 0.960%.
2015-08-07 22:09:03 INFO: 4,194,304 simulations out of 19,405,009 data points, 1 / 10,218,281,593,569 of search space size (198,285,846,287,760,000,000).