forked from wenddymacro/AppliedEconometrics
-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
AppliedEconometrics.aux
436 lines (436 loc) · 65.4 KB
/
AppliedEconometrics.aux
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
\relax
\providecommand\hyper@newdestlabel[2]{}
\providecommand\HyperFirstAtBeginDocument{\AtBeginDocument}
\HyperFirstAtBeginDocument{\ifx\hyper@anchor\@undefined
\global\let\oldcontentsline\contentsline
\gdef\contentsline#1#2#3#4{\oldcontentsline{#1}{#2}{#3}}
\global\let\oldnewlabel\newlabel
\gdef\newlabel#1#2{\newlabelxx{#1}#2}
\gdef\newlabelxx#1#2#3#4#5#6{\oldnewlabel{#1}{{#2}{#3}}}
\AtEndDocument{\ifx\hyper@anchor\@undefined
\let\contentsline\oldcontentsline
\let\newlabel\oldnewlabel
\fi}
\fi}
\global\let\hyper@last\relax
\gdef\HyperFirstAtBeginDocument#1{#1}
\providecommand*\HyPL@Entry[1]{}
\@writefile{toc}{\boolfalse {citerequest}\boolfalse {citetracker}\boolfalse {pagetracker}\boolfalse {backtracker}\relax }
\@writefile{lof}{\boolfalse {citerequest}\boolfalse {citetracker}\boolfalse {pagetracker}\boolfalse {backtracker}\relax }
\@writefile{lot}{\boolfalse {citerequest}\boolfalse {citetracker}\boolfalse {pagetracker}\boolfalse {backtracker}\relax }
\abx@aux@refcontext{none/global//global/global}
\HyPL@Entry{0<</S/A>>}
\pgfsyspdfmark {pgfid1}{28585375}{12331042}
\HyPL@Entry{1<</S/r>>}
\HyPL@Entry{7<</S/D>>}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {1}引言}{1}{chapter.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {1.1}计量经济学是什么？}{2}{section.1.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {1.2}计量经济学的方法}{2}{section.1.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {1.3}计量经济学概念}{3}{section.1.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {1.4}数据、数据结构与数据来源}{4}{section.1.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {1.4.1}观测数据}{4}{subsection.1.4.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {1.4.2}数据结构}{4}{subsection.1.4.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {1.4.3}数据来源}{4}{subsection.1.4.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {1.5}计量软件}{5}{section.1.5}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {1.6}进一步阅读资料}{5}{section.1.6}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {2}概率与统计基础}{6}{chapter.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {2.1}概率论}{6}{section.2.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {2.1.1}单变量分布}{6}{subsection.2.1.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {2.1.1.1}基本概念}{6}{subsubsection.2.1.1.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {2.1}{\ignorespaces 随机变量概率\relax }}{6}{table.caption.3}\protected@file@percent }
\providecommand*\caption@xref[2]{\@setref\relax\@undefined{#1}}
\newlabel{tab:digit}{{2.1}{6}{随机变量概率\relax }{table.caption.3}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {2.1}{\ignorespaces 伯努利分布：来源于百度图片\relax }}{7}{figure.caption.4}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{2.1}{7}{伯努利分布：来源于百度图片\relax }{figure.caption.4}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {2.1.1.2}主要统计量}{7}{subsubsection.2.1.1.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {2.2}{\ignorespaces 概率密度函数：来源于Stock and Watson，2015，pp18\relax }}{8}{figure.caption.5}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{2.2}{8}{概率密度函数：来源于Stock and Watson，2015，pp18\relax }{figure.caption.5}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {2.1.2}多变量分布}{9}{subsection.2.1.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {2.1.3}常用分布}{10}{subsection.2.1.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {2.1.3.1}正态分布}{11}{subsubsection.2.1.3.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {2.3}{\ignorespaces 正态概率密度函数：来源于Stock and Watson，2015，pp36\relax }}{11}{figure.caption.6}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{2.3}{11}{正态概率密度函数：来源于Stock and Watson，2015，pp36\relax }{figure.caption.6}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {2.4}{\ignorespaces 标准正态分布函数:来源于Brown，2010\relax }}{12}{figure.caption.7}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{2.4}{12}{标准正态分布函数:来源于Brown，2010\relax }{figure.caption.7}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {2.1.3.2}卡方分布}{12}{subsubsection.2.1.3.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {2.5}{\ignorespaces 卡方分布函数:来源于Brown，2010\relax }}{13}{figure.caption.8}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{2.5}{13}{卡方分布函数:来源于Brown，2010\relax }{figure.caption.8}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {2.1.3.3}t分布}{13}{subsubsection.2.1.3.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {2.6}{\ignorespaces t分布函数:来源于Brown，2010\relax }}{14}{figure.caption.9}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{2.6}{14}{t分布函数:来源于Brown，2010\relax }{figure.caption.9}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {2.1.3.4}F分布}{14}{subsubsection.2.1.3.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {2.1.4}随机抽样与大样本近似}{14}{subsection.2.1.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {2.1.4.1}随机抽样与样本矩}{14}{subsubsection.2.1.4.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {2.7}{\ignorespaces F分布函数:来源于Brown，2010\relax }}{15}{figure.caption.10}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{2.7}{15}{F分布函数:来源于Brown，2010\relax }{figure.caption.10}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {2.1.4.2}大样本近似}{15}{subsubsection.2.1.4.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {2.1.5}小结}{16}{subsection.2.1.5}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {2.2}统计学概述}{17}{section.2.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {2.2.1}估计}{17}{subsection.2.2.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {2.2.2}假设检验}{18}{subsection.2.2.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {2.8}{\ignorespaces p值:来源于Stock and Watson，2015，pp74\relax }}{19}{figure.caption.11}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{2.8}{19}{p值:来源于Stock and Watson，2015，pp74\relax }{figure.caption.11}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {2.2.3}置信区间}{19}{subsection.2.2.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {2.3}贝叶斯统计概述}{20}{section.2.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {2.4}附录}{20}{section.2.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {3}一元线性回归}{21}{chapter.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {3.1}线性回归模型估计}{21}{section.3.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.1.1}线性回归模型}{21}{subsection.3.1.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.1.2}系数估计}{22}{subsection.3.1.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {3.1}{\ignorespaces 测试分数与师生比的分布\relax }}{22}{table.caption.12}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{tab:digit}{{3.1}{22}{测试分数与师生比的分布\relax }{table.caption.12}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.1}{\ignorespaces 学生-老师比与分数散点图\relax }}{23}{figure.caption.13}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.1}{23}{学生-老师比与分数散点图\relax }{figure.caption.13}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.2}{\ignorespaces stata结果\relax }}{24}{figure.caption.14}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.2}{24}{stata结果\relax }{figure.caption.14}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.1.3}拟合度}{24}{subsection.3.1.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.3}{\ignorespaces 回归线\relax }}{25}{figure.caption.15}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.3}{25}{回归线\relax }{figure.caption.15}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.1.4}最小二乘的假设}{25}{subsection.3.1.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {3.2}假设检验和置信区间}{26}{section.3.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.2.1}回归系数的假设检验}{26}{subsection.3.2.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.2.2}置信区间}{27}{subsection.3.2.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.2.3}虚拟变量}{27}{subsection.3.2.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.4}{\ignorespaces 虚拟变量回归结果\relax }}{28}{figure.caption.16}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.4}{28}{虚拟变量回归结果\relax }{figure.caption.16}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {3.3}STATA教程（一）}{28}{section.3.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.5}{\ignorespaces stata界面\relax }}{29}{figure.caption.17}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.5}{29}{stata界面\relax }{figure.caption.17}{}}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {3.2}{\ignorespaces 输入数据\relax }}{29}{table.caption.19}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{tab:digit}{{3.2}{29}{输入数据\relax }{table.caption.19}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.6}{\ignorespaces 数据输入界面\relax }}{30}{figure.caption.18}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.6}{30}{数据输入界面\relax }{figure.caption.18}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.7}{\ignorespaces 数据输入界面\relax }}{30}{figure.caption.20}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.7}{30}{数据输入界面\relax }{figure.caption.20}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.8}{\ignorespaces 数据输入界面\relax }}{31}{figure.caption.21}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.8}{31}{数据输入界面\relax }{figure.caption.21}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.9}{\ignorespaces 数据输入界面\relax }}{32}{figure.caption.22}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.9}{32}{数据输入界面\relax }{figure.caption.22}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.10}{\ignorespaces 数据输入界面\relax }}{33}{figure.caption.23}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.10}{33}{数据输入界面\relax }{figure.caption.23}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.11}{\ignorespaces 数据输入界面\relax }}{33}{figure.caption.24}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.11}{33}{数据输入界面\relax }{figure.caption.24}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.12}{\ignorespaces 数据输入界面\relax }}{34}{figure.caption.25}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.12}{34}{数据输入界面\relax }{figure.caption.25}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.13}{\ignorespaces 观测值列表\relax }}{34}{figure.caption.27}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.13}{34}{观测值列表\relax }{figure.caption.27}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.14}{\ignorespaces 统计量\relax }}{34}{figure.caption.28}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.14}{34}{统计量\relax }{figure.caption.28}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.15}{\ignorespaces 散点图\relax }}{35}{figure.caption.29}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.15}{35}{散点图\relax }{figure.caption.29}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.16}{\ignorespaces 拟合线\relax }}{35}{figure.caption.30}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.16}{35}{拟合线\relax }{figure.caption.30}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.17}{\ignorespaces 简单回归结果\relax }}{36}{figure.caption.31}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.17}{36}{简单回归结果\relax }{figure.caption.31}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3.18}{\ignorespaces 稳健标准误回归结果\relax }}{36}{figure.caption.32}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{3.18}{36}{稳健标准误回归结果\relax }{figure.caption.32}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {4}多元线性回归}{37}{chapter.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {4.1}遗漏变量偏误}{37}{section.4.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.1.1}遗漏变量偏误的定义}{37}{subsection.4.1.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {4.2}多元回归模型}{38}{section.4.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.2.1}多元回归中的OLS估计量}{39}{subsection.4.2.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.1}{\ignorespaces 多元回归结果\relax }}{40}{figure.caption.33}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{4.1}{40}{多元回归结果\relax }{figure.caption.33}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.2.2}拟合度}{40}{subsection.4.2.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.2.3}多元回归中的OLS假设}{41}{subsection.4.2.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {4.3}假设检验与置信区间}{41}{section.4.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.3.1}单系数假设检验与置信区间}{41}{subsection.4.3.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {4.3.1.1}单系数假设检验}{42}{subsubsection.4.3.1.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.2}{\ignorespaces 标准误、t统计量和p值\relax }}{42}{figure.caption.34}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{4.2}{42}{标准误、t统计量和p值\relax }{figure.caption.34}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {4.3.1.2}置信区间}{42}{subsubsection.4.3.1.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.3}{\ignorespaces 加入生均支出的回归结果\relax }}{43}{figure.caption.35}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{4.3}{43}{加入生均支出的回归结果\relax }{figure.caption.35}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.3.2}联合假设检验}{43}{subsection.4.3.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {4.3.2.1}F统计量}{44}{subsubsection.4.3.2.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.4}{\ignorespaces F统计量\relax }}{45}{figure.caption.36}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{4.4}{45}{F统计量\relax }{figure.caption.36}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.3.3}多元回归模型设定}{45}{subsection.4.3.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {4.4}多元回归Stata操作示例}{46}{section.4.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.5}{\ignorespaces 测试分数与非英语母语学生比例\relax }}{47}{figure.caption.37}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{4.5}{47}{测试分数与非英语母语学生比例\relax }{figure.caption.37}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.6}{\ignorespaces 测试分数与接受免费午餐的学生比例\relax }}{48}{figure.caption.38}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{4.6}{48}{测试分数与接受免费午餐的学生比例\relax }{figure.caption.38}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.7}{\ignorespaces 测试分数与接受收入援助的学生比例\relax }}{48}{figure.caption.39}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{4.7}{48}{测试分数与接受收入援助的学生比例\relax }{figure.caption.39}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.8}{\ignorespaces 相关系数\relax }}{48}{figure.caption.40}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{4.8}{48}{相关系数\relax }{figure.caption.40}{}}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {4.1}{\ignorespaces 多元回归结果\relax }}{49}{table.caption.41}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{tab:digit}{{4.1}{49}{多元回归结果\relax }{table.caption.41}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {5}识别的评价框架}{51}{chapter.5}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {5.1}内部有效性和外部有效性框架}{51}{section.5.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.1.1}内部有效性}{51}{subsection.5.1.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.1.2}外部有效性}{52}{subsection.5.1.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {5.2}内部有效性的威胁}{52}{section.5.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.2.1}遗漏变量偏误}{53}{subsection.5.2.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.2.2}函数形式误设}{54}{subsection.5.2.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.2.3}测量误差}{54}{subsection.5.2.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.2.4}缺失数据和样本选择}{54}{subsection.5.2.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.2.5}双向因果}{55}{subsection.5.2.5}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.2.6}OLS标准误的不一致性}{55}{subsection.5.2.6}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {5.3}宏观中的识别}{56}{section.5.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {5.4}小班教学及其Stata操作}{56}{section.5.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.4.1}外部有效性}{56}{subsection.5.4.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {5.1}{\ignorespaces 样本比较\relax }}{56}{table.caption.43}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{tab:digit}{{5.1}{56}{样本比较\relax }{table.caption.43}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {5.5}总结}{56}{section.5.5}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {6}面板数据模型}{58}{chapter.6}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {6.1}面板数据}{58}{section.6.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {6.1}{\ignorespaces 平衡面板\relax }}{58}{figure.caption.44}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{6.1}{58}{平衡面板\relax }{figure.caption.44}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {6.2}{\ignorespaces 非平衡面板\relax }}{59}{figure.caption.45}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{6.2}{59}{非平衡面板\relax }{figure.caption.45}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {6.3}{\ignorespaces 1982年交通死亡率与酒精税\relax }}{60}{figure.caption.46}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{6.3}{60}{1982年交通死亡率与酒精税\relax }{figure.caption.46}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {6.4}{\ignorespaces 1988年交通死亡率与酒精税\relax }}{60}{figure.caption.47}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{6.4}{60}{1988年交通死亡率与酒精税\relax }{figure.caption.47}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {6.2}固定效应回归}{61}{section.6.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {6.2.1}两期“比较”}{61}{subsection.6.2.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {6.5}{\ignorespaces 1982、1988年交通死亡率与酒精税\relax }}{62}{figure.caption.48}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{6.5}{62}{1982、1988年交通死亡率与酒精税\relax }{figure.caption.48}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {6.2.2}固定效应回归}{62}{subsection.6.2.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {6.2.3}例子}{64}{subsection.6.2.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {6.6}{\ignorespaces 交通死亡率与酒精税\relax }}{65}{figure.caption.49}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{6.6}{65}{交通死亡率与酒精税\relax }{figure.caption.49}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {7}工具变量法}{66}{chapter.7}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {7.1}一元回归与单工具变量}{66}{section.7.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {7.1.1}两阶段最小二乘TSLS}{67}{subsection.7.1.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {7.2}IV回归}{68}{section.7.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {7.2.1}TSLS}{69}{subsection.7.2.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {7.2.2}例子：香烟需求}{69}{subsection.7.2.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {7.3}如何检验IV的有效性}{70}{section.7.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {7.1}{\ignorespaces 香烟需求\relax }}{71}{figure.caption.50}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{7.1}{71}{香烟需求\relax }{figure.caption.50}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {7.4}异质性处理效应的IV估计量}{72}{section.7.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {7.5}哪里去寻找有效的工具变量呢？}{72}{section.7.5}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {7.6}Stata命令}{73}{section.7.6}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {7.6.1}教育年限的工具变量：城市是否存在大学}{73}{subsection.7.6.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {7.1}{\ignorespaces 受教育年限对收入对数的OLS and 2SLS回归\relax }}{75}{table.caption.51}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{2sls_1}{{7.1}{75}{受教育年限对收入对数的OLS and 2SLS回归\relax }{table.caption.51}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {7.7}一些提醒}{75}{section.7.7}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {7.8}流行的IV设计}{76}{section.7.8}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {7.8.1}随机实验设计(the lottery design)：抓阄}{76}{subsection.7.8.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {7.8.2}法官仁慈设计（Judge leniency design）}{77}{subsection.7.8.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {7.2}{\ignorespaces 医疗保险效应的第一阶段估计结果\relax }}{78}{table.caption.53}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{2sls_2}{{7.2}{78}{医疗保险效应的第一阶段估计结果\relax }{table.caption.53}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {7.2}{\ignorespaces 排他性和单调性检验\relax }}{80}{figure.caption.55}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:jfe}{{7.2}{80}{排他性和单调性检验\relax }{figure.caption.55}{}}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {7.3}{\ignorespaces 拘留对认罪的OLS和IV估计\relax }}{83}{table.caption.56}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{2sls_3}{{7.3}{83}{拘留对认罪的OLS和IV估计\relax }{table.caption.56}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {7.8.3}Bartik Shift-Share IV}{83}{subsection.7.8.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {8}双重差分(DID)}{87}{chapter.8}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {8.1}DID}{87}{section.8.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {8.1}{\ignorespaces DID估计量\relax }}{88}{table.caption.58}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{tab:digit}{{8.1}{88}{DID估计量\relax }{table.caption.58}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {8.2}更多经典DID的例子}{88}{section.8.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {8.3}未处理组与平行趋势假设}{88}{section.8.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.1}{\ignorespaces DID估计量-平行趋势\relax }}{90}{figure.caption.59}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{8.1}{90}{DID估计量-平行趋势\relax }{figure.caption.59}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {8.4}DID在Stata中的实现}{92}{section.8.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.2}{\ignorespaces 变量\relax }}{93}{figure.caption.60}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{8.2}{93}{变量\relax }{figure.caption.60}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.3}{\ignorespaces DID结果\relax }}{94}{figure.caption.61}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{8.3}{94}{DID结果\relax }{figure.caption.61}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.4}{\ignorespaces 控制协变量的DID结果\relax }}{94}{figure.caption.62}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{8.4}{94}{控制协变量的DID结果\relax }{figure.caption.62}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {8.5}动态处理效应}{94}{section.8.5}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.5}{\ignorespaces 动态处理效应图，来源于Freyaldenhoven et al.(2021)。\relax }}{95}{figure.caption.63}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:dynamicdid}{{8.5}{95}{动态处理效应图，来源于Freyaldenhoven et al.(2021)。\relax }{figure.caption.63}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.6}{\ignorespaces 动态效应的标准化事件-时间（建议1） 图片来源于：Simon Freyaldenhoven, Christian Hansen, Jorge Pérez Pérez, and Jesse M. Shapiro（2021，NBER, w29170）\relax }}{97}{figure.caption.64}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:sug1}{{8.6}{97}{动态效应的标准化事件-时间（建议1）\\ 图片来源于：Simon Freyaldenhoven, Christian Hansen, Jorge Pérez Pérez, and Jesse M. Shapiro（2021，NBER, w29170）\relax }{figure.caption.64}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.7}{\ignorespaces 系数标签（建议2） 图片来源于：Simon Freyaldenhoven, Christian Hansen, Jorge Pérez Pérez, and Jesse M. Shapiro（2021，NBER, w29170）\relax }}{97}{figure.caption.65}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:sug2}{{8.7}{97}{系数标签（建议2）\\ 图片来源于：Simon Freyaldenhoven, Christian Hansen, Jorge Pérez Pérez, and Jesse M. Shapiro（2021，NBER, w29170）\relax }{figure.caption.65}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.8}{\ignorespaces 双向置信带宽（建议3） 图片来源于：Simon Freyaldenhoven, Christian Hansen, Jorge Pérez Pérez, and Jesse M. Shapiro（2021，NBER, w29170）\relax }}{98}{figure.caption.66}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:sug3}{{8.8}{98}{双向置信带宽（建议3）\\ 图片来源于：Simon Freyaldenhoven, Christian Hansen, Jorge Pérez Pérez, and Jesse M. Shapiro（2021，NBER, w29170）\relax }{figure.caption.66}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.9}{\ignorespaces 增加Wald检验p值（建议4） 图片来源于：Simon Freyaldenhoven, Christian Hansen, Jorge Pérez Pérez, and Jesse M. Shapiro（2021，NBER, w29170）\relax }}{98}{figure.caption.67}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:sug4}{{8.9}{98}{增加Wald检验p值（建议4）\\ 图片来源于：Simon Freyaldenhoven, Christian Hansen, Jorge Pérez Pérez, and Jesse M. Shapiro（2021，NBER, w29170）\relax }{figure.caption.67}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.10}{\ignorespaces 增加Wald检验p值（建议6） 图片来源于：Simon Freyaldenhoven, Christian Hansen, Jorge Pérez Pérez, and Jesse M. Shapiro（2021，NBER, w29170）\relax }}{99}{figure.caption.68}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:sug6}{{8.10}{99}{增加Wald检验p值（建议6）\\ 图片来源于：Simon Freyaldenhoven, Christian Hansen, Jorge Pérez Pérez, and Jesse M. Shapiro（2021，NBER, w29170）\relax }{figure.caption.68}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.11}{\ignorespaces 评价一个模型的拟合程度（建议7） 图片来源于：Simon Freyaldenhoven, Christian Hansen, Jorge Pérez Pérez, and Jesse M. Shapiro（2021，NBER, w29170）\relax }}{100}{figure.caption.69}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:sug7}{{8.11}{100}{评价一个模型的拟合程度（建议7）\\ 图片来源于：Simon Freyaldenhoven, Christian Hansen, Jorge Pérez Pérez, and Jesse M. Shapiro（2021，NBER, w29170）\relax }{figure.caption.69}{}}
\gdef \LT@i {\LT@entry
{1}{99.88399pt}\LT@entry
{1}{276.47198pt}\LT@entry
{1}{137.69199pt}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {8.6}交叠DID}{101}{section.8.6}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {8.6.1}异质性处理时点下TWFE模型的问题}{101}{subsection.8.6.1}\protected@file@percent }
\gdef \LT@ii {\LT@entry
{1}{86.11998pt}\LT@entry
{1}{221.54797pt}\LT@entry
{1}{134.92pt}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.12}{\ignorespaces Goodman-Bacon分解\relax }}{102}{figure.caption.72}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:GB_decom}{{8.12}{102}{Goodman-Bacon分解\relax }{figure.caption.72}{}}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {8.2}{\ignorespaces 交叠DID的Stata包及对应文献\relax }}{103}{table.caption.70}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {8.4}{\ignorespaces 交叠DID的Stata包及对应文献(续表)\relax }}{104}{table.caption.71}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.13}{\ignorespaces 无过错离婚改革的效应：Goodman-Bacon分解\relax }}{106}{figure.caption.73}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:GB_decomp_example}{{8.13}{106}{无过错离婚改革的效应：Goodman-Bacon分解\relax }{figure.caption.73}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {8.6.2}事件研究与Bacon分解}{107}{subsection.8.6.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {8.6}{\ignorespaces 美国枪支改革(cdl)对暴力犯罪的影响\relax }}{109}{table.caption.74}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{DID_1}{{8.6}{109}{美国枪支改革(cdl)对暴力犯罪的影响\relax }{table.caption.74}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.14}{\ignorespaces 美国枪支改革的效应：事件研究图\relax }}{110}{figure.caption.76}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:event_study_plot}{{8.14}{110}{美国枪支改革的效应：事件研究图\relax }{figure.caption.76}{}}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {8.7}{\ignorespaces 美国枪支改革(cdl)对暴力犯罪影响的Bacon分解\relax }}{111}{table.caption.77}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{DID_2}{{8.7}{111}{美国枪支改革(cdl)对暴力犯罪影响的Bacon分解\relax }{table.caption.77}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.15}{\ignorespaces 美国枪支改革的效应：Bacon分解图\relax }}{112}{figure.caption.79}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:cdl_bacon_decomp}{{8.15}{112}{美国枪支改革的效应：Bacon分解图\relax }{figure.caption.79}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {8.6.3}其它交叠DID估计量}{113}{subsection.8.6.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.16}{\ignorespaces 交叠DID估计量的Dofile\relax }}{114}{figure.caption.80}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:project_manager}{{8.16}{114}{交叠DID估计量的Dofile\relax }{figure.caption.80}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8.17}{\ignorespaces Wooldridge(2021)的did估计量\relax }}{116}{figure.caption.81}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:jwdid}{{8.17}{116}{Wooldridge(2021)的did估计量\relax }{figure.caption.81}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {9}断点回归设计（RDD）}{117}{chapter.9}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {9.1}断点回归估计量}{117}{section.9.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {9.1}{\ignorespaces 断点回归设计的散点图\relax }}{118}{figure.caption.82}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{9.1}{118}{断点回归设计的散点图\relax }{figure.caption.82}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {9.1.1}精准断点回归}{119}{subsection.9.1.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {9.1.2}模糊断点回归}{120}{subsection.9.1.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {9.2}断点回归的规定动作}{120}{section.9.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {9.3}stata操作}{123}{section.9.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {9.2}{\ignorespaces 查找rd程序\relax }}{124}{figure.caption.83}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{9.2}{124}{查找rd程序\relax }{figure.caption.83}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {9.3}{\ignorespaces 断点回归设计的散点图\relax }}{125}{figure.caption.84}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{9.3}{125}{断点回归设计的散点图\relax }{figure.caption.84}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {9.4}{\ignorespaces 最优带宽选择结果\relax }}{125}{figure.caption.85}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{9.4}{125}{最优带宽选择结果\relax }{figure.caption.85}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {9.5}{\ignorespaces 断点回归估计结果\relax }}{126}{figure.caption.86}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{9.5}{126}{断点回归估计结果\relax }{figure.caption.86}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {9.4}RD的新进展}{127}{section.9.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {9.4.1}Kink回归设计}{127}{subsection.9.4.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {9.6}{\ignorespaces 弯折（Kink）曲线(模拟数据)\relax }}{128}{figure.caption.87}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:kink}{{9.6}{128}{弯折（Kink）曲线(模拟数据)\relax }{figure.caption.87}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {9.7}{\ignorespaces 情形2：弯折（Kink）曲线（模拟数据）\relax }}{129}{figure.caption.88}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:kink2}{{9.7}{129}{情形2：弯折（Kink）曲线（模拟数据）\relax }{figure.caption.88}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {9.4.2}多断点回归设计}{130}{subsection.9.4.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {9.4.2.1}巴西执政党的选举优势}{130}{subsubsection.9.4.2.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {9.1}{\ignorespaces 巴西社会民主党最强竞争对手不同水平得票率的频率\relax }}{130}{table.caption.89}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{Mrd}{{9.1}{130}{巴西社会民主党最强竞争对手不同水平得票率的频率\relax }{table.caption.89}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {9.4.2.2}巴西联邦转移支付对政治腐败的影响}{131}{subsubsection.9.4.2.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {9.4.2.3}学校基础设施修缮对教育结果的效应}{131}{subsubsection.9.4.2.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {9.4.3}排序断点回归（Count RD）设计}{131}{subsection.9.4.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {9.4.4}空间断点回归}{131}{subsection.9.4.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {9.4.4.1}概述}{131}{subsubsection.9.4.4.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {9.8}{\ignorespaces 卢旺达的灌溉水渠，图片来源于\href {https://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/spatial-jumps}{FLORENCE KONDYLIS and JOHN LOESER(2019)}\relax }}{132}{figure.caption.91}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:irrigation}{{9.8}{132}{卢旺达的灌溉水渠，图片来源于\href {https://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/spatial-jumps}{FLORENCE KONDYLIS and JOHN LOESER(2019)}\relax }{figure.caption.91}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {9.4.4.2}L J Keele and R Titiumik(2014,PA)的地理边界断点回归}{134}{subsubsection.9.4.4.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {9.4.4.3}R M Gonzalez(2021,AEJ:AE)的阿富汗手机使用与选举欺诈}{134}{subsubsection.9.4.4.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {9.4.5}DID-Kink}{134}{subsection.9.4.5}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {10}其他因果效应识别方法——匹配与合成控制法}{135}{chapter.10}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {10.1}匹配法}{135}{section.10.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {10.1}{\ignorespaces 匹配估计\relax }}{136}{table.caption.92}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{tab:digit}{{10.1}{136}{匹配估计\relax }{table.caption.92}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {10.1.0.1}PSM的Stata应用演示}{137}{subsubsection.10.1.0.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {10.1}{\ignorespaces 匹配命令描述\relax }}{138}{figure.caption.93}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{10.1}{138}{匹配命令描述\relax }{figure.caption.93}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {10.2}合成控制法}{138}{section.10.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {10.2}{\ignorespaces 权重\relax }}{142}{figure.caption.94}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{10.2}{142}{权重\relax }{figure.caption.94}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {10.3}{\ignorespaces 合成结果比较\relax }}{143}{figure.caption.95}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{10.3}{143}{合成结果比较\relax }{figure.caption.95}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {10.4}{\ignorespaces 合成控制结果\relax }}{143}{figure.caption.96}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{10.4}{143}{合成控制结果\relax }{figure.caption.96}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {10.5}{\ignorespaces 趋势图\relax }}{144}{figure.caption.97}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:digit}{{10.5}{144}{趋势图\relax }{figure.caption.97}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {10.3}克服计量方法选择困难症}{146}{section.10.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {11}时间序列的自回归模型}{147}{chapter.11}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {11.1}事件研究：反事实预测}{147}{section.11.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {11.1}{\ignorespaces 谷歌和标普500的收益率\relax }}{148}{figure.caption.98}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:google}{{11.1}{148}{谷歌和标普500的收益率\relax }{figure.caption.98}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {11.2}{\ignorespaces 谷歌更名事件对其股票收益率的影响\relax }}{150}{figure.caption.99}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:google_AR}{{11.2}{150}{谷歌更名事件对其股票收益率的影响\relax }{figure.caption.99}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {11.3}{\ignorespaces \relax }}{151}{figure.caption.100}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:estudy_result}{{11.3}{151}{\relax }{figure.caption.100}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {11.2}自回归模型}{152}{section.11.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {11.4}{\ignorespaces 全球飞机劫持事件的年度数量\relax }}{153}{figure.caption.101}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:hijacking}{{11.4}{153}{全球飞机劫持事件的年度数量\relax }{figure.caption.101}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {11.5}{\ignorespaces 冲击类型\relax }}{155}{figure.caption.102}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:shocktype}{{11.5}{155}{冲击类型\relax }{figure.caption.102}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {11.3}向量自回归模型}{156}{section.11.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {11.3.1}VAR}{156}{subsection.11.3.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {11.6}{\ignorespaces 宏观经济变量的变化\relax }}{157}{figure.caption.103}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:varts}{{11.6}{157}{宏观经济变量的变化\relax }{figure.caption.103}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {11.7}{\ignorespaces VAR滞后期选择标准\relax }}{158}{figure.caption.104}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:lagsc}{{11.7}{158}{VAR滞后期选择标准\relax }{figure.caption.104}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {11.3.2}SVAR}{158}{subsection.11.3.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {11.8}{\ignorespaces VAR的脉冲响应函数\relax }}{159}{figure.caption.105}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:var_irf}{{11.8}{159}{VAR的脉冲响应函数\relax }{figure.caption.105}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {12}动态随机一般均衡模型}{160}{chapter.12}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {12.1}静态IS-LM-PC模型}{160}{section.12.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {12.1.1}IS-LM模型}{160}{subsection.12.1.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {12.1.2}IS-LM-PC模型}{162}{subsection.12.1.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {12.1.3}金融市场摩擦：IS-LM-PC-FF模型}{163}{subsection.12.1.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {12.2}DSGE模型}{164}{section.12.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {12.2.1}动态IS-LM-PC模型：三方程NK}{165}{subsection.12.2.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {12.1}{\ignorespaces 模型参数校准\relax }}{167}{table.caption.106}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{param}{{12.1}{167}{模型参数校准\relax }{table.caption.106}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {12.1}{\ignorespaces 财政政策的宏观经济效应\relax }}{170}{figure.caption.108}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:fiscal}{{12.1}{170}{财政政策的宏观经济效应\relax }{figure.caption.108}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {12.2}{\ignorespaces 不同货币政策机制下，财政政策的产出效应\relax }}{172}{figure.caption.109}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:fiscal4}{{12.2}{172}{不同货币政策机制下，财政政策的产出效应\relax }{figure.caption.109}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {12.3}{\ignorespaces DSGE数据描述\relax }}{173}{figure.caption.110}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:dsgedata}{{12.3}{173}{DSGE数据描述\relax }{figure.caption.110}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {12.2.2}动态IS-LM-PC-FF模型：四方程宏观金融模型}{174}{subsection.12.2.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {12.3}经典论文复制1：Sims, Wu and Zhang(2021, REStat)评估非常规货币政策效应}{175}{section.12.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {12.2}{\ignorespaces 模型参数校准\relax }}{176}{table.caption.111}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{param}{{12.2}{176}{模型参数校准\relax }{table.caption.111}{}}
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {12.4}{\ignorespaces QE政策的宏观经济效应\relax }}{177}{figure.caption.113}\protected@file@percent }
\newlabel{fig:qe}{{12.4}{177}{QE政策的宏观经济效应\relax }{figure.caption.113}{}}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {12.4}经典论文复制2：Benigno and Fornaro(2018， RES)的凯恩斯主义增长模型}{177}{section.12.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {13}极简CGE：一个教学式模型}{179}{chapter.13}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {13.1}导论}{179}{section.13.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {13.2}极简CGE：McLure and Thirsk(1975)模型}{179}{section.13.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {13.1}{\ignorespaces 初始均衡配置\relax }}{181}{table.caption.114}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {13.3}税收政策的一般均衡效应：CGE应用}{181}{section.13.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {13.3.1}企业所得税}{181}{subsection.13.3.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {13.3.2}商品税/增值税}{182}{subsection.13.3.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {13.2}{\ignorespaces 关键变量的均衡值\relax }}{184}{table.caption.115}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {13.3.3}福利效应}{184}{subsection.13.3.3}\protected@file@percent }
\abx@aux@nociteall
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {14}如何讲好经济学故事：经济学论文的流行形式}{185}{chapter.14}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {14.1}好的想法}{185}{section.14.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {14.2}标题的流行形式}{185}{section.14.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {14.3}文献综述}{185}{section.14.3}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {14.4}经验特征或待检验命题}{185}{section.14.4}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {14.4.1}逻辑推演式}{185}{subsection.14.4.1}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {14.4.2}数理模型式}{185}{subsection.14.4.2}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {14.5}实证分析}{185}{section.14.5}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {14.6}机制/反事实的数理模拟}{185}{section.14.6}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {14.7}结论与政策含义}{185}{section.14.7}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {14.8}引言}{185}{section.14.8}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {14.9}摘要}{185}{section.14.9}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {14.10}参考文献}{185}{section.14.10}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {14.11}附录}{185}{section.14.11}\protected@file@percent }
\abx@aux@read@bbl@mdfivesum{nobblfile}
\abx@aux@read@bblrerun
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {A}基本数学工具}{186}{appendix.A}\protected@file@percent }
\@writefile{lof}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{toc}{\defcounter {refsection}{0}\relax }\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {A.1}求和算子与描述统计量}{186}{section.A.1}\protected@file@percent }
\gdef \@abspage@last{193}