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ntp_heat_wave_loads

This repository houses the raw data and processing scripts to create the hourly load time series by Balancing Authority for the NTP project. Data are scaled to match the 2035 annual total loads data by BA. The future loads for different weather years are based on the Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model.

Input Files

The input data needed to recreate this process is stored in the data directory.

Output Files

The output of this processing is stored in the data directory. Original datasets for the WECC only use the filename format: "TELL_Loads_2035_Based_on_YYYY_Weather_With_Climate_Change.csv". Data for the WECC and EIC combined uses the filename format: "TELL_EIC_WECC_Loads_2035_Based_on_YYYY_Weather_With_Climate_Change.csv"

Summary Plots

Quick-look plots analyzing the data are stored in the plots directory.

Notes

  1. In the WECC loads in CISO, IPCO, NEVP, and PACE are modeled as a whole in TELL but are separated in GridView. To create the data for these BAs I used the whole load simulated by TELL and distributed it to the subregions within the BA using the annual total load in each subregion to portion out the TELL loads. Those subregions will have different the same hour-to-hour variability but different magnitudes depending on their total load fractions.
  2. In the EIC loads in FMPP, FPL, MISO, PJM, SOCO, SWPP, and TVA are modeled as a whole in TELL but are separated in GridView. I used the same technique to subdivide the loads as I did in the original WECC data workflow.
  3. TELL does not model BAs in Canada or Mexico. For BAs in those countries (CFE, IESO, TE, NB, NS, CORNWALL, NF, BCHA, and AESO) I used the raw time series from the WECC+EIC Gridview file that Kostas passed to me.
  4. There are some regions that have no mapping to BAs modeled by TELL. For those regions I used the raw time series from the WECC+EIC Gridview file that Kostas passed to me. Those BAs are SETH, SERU, SEHA, IPP-REL, MH, TH_Mead, TH_Malin, SPC, TH_PV, OSC, PS, MPW, GLH, CPLW, YAD, WECC, and WBDC-WECC. Many of these regions have 0 loads in the GridView file.

Mapping Files

Two files describing the BA mapping between TELL and Gridview are provided in the data directory. The file 'BA_Mapping.xlsx' shows how the names match up and which BAs have subregions. The file 'Final_EIC_WECC_BA_Crosscheck.xlsx' goes through the WECC+EIC Gridview file that Kostas passed to me column-by-column to make sure that each region expected in the file is accounted for in my technique using the TELL model.

Citations

Any use of this data in a publication, presentation, or report should use the following citations. Please contact Casey Burleyson ([email protected]) prior to any reuse of the data.

Citation for the TELL model

McGrath et al., (2022). tell: a Python package to model future total electricity loads in the United States. Journal of Open Source Software, 7(79), 4472, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.04472

Citation for the underlying weather data

Burleyson, C., Thurber, T., & Vernon, C. (2023). Projections of Hourly Meteorology by Balancing Authority Based on the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulations (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1960530

Jones, A. D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P., Stansfield, A., Reed, K., Thurber, T., Ullrich, P., & Rice, J. S. (2022). IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756