-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
01_DIWA_OPA_2020.html
586 lines (480 loc) · 16.8 KB
/
01_DIWA_OPA_2020.html
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
556
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
567
568
569
570
571
572
573
574
575
576
577
578
579
580
581
582
583
584
585
586
<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="" xml:lang="">
<head>
<title>Open Policy Analysis</title>
<meta charset="utf-8" />
<meta name="author" content="Fernando Hoces, Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences CEGA" />
<link href="libs/remark-css/default.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/remark-css/metropolis.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/remark-css/metropolis-fonts.css" rel="stylesheet" />
</head>
<body>
<textarea id="source">
class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide
# Open Policy Analysis
## Development Impact West Africa
### Fernando Hoces, </br> Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences </br> CEGA
### 13 July 2020 | <a href="https://bitss-opa.github.io/DIWA2020_slides/#1">slides</a>
---
<style>
.center2 {
margin: 0;
position: absolute;
top: 50%;
left: 50%;
-ms-transform: translate(-50%, -50%);
transform: translate(-50%, -50%);
}
pre.sourceCode {
max-height: 200px;
overflow-y: auto;
}
/*
.remark-slide-number {
position: inherit;
}
.remark-slide-number .progress-bar-container {
position: absolute;
bottom: 0;
height: 4px;
display: block;
left: 0;
right: 0;
}
.remark-slide-number .progress-bar {
height: 100%;
background-color: blue;
}
*/
</style>
<style type="text/css">
# CSS for including pauses in printed PDF output (see bottom of lecture)
@media print {
.has-continuation {
display: block !important;
}
}
</style>
# Today's Presentation
<br><br><br><br>
### Introductions
### A Framework for Open Policy Analysis
### Case Studies on OPA
### Discussion
---
class: inverse, center, middle
name: introductions
# Introductions
<html><div style='float:left'></div><hr color='#EB811B' size=1px width= %total% ></html>
---
background-image: url("Images/BITSSlogo.png"), url(Images/cega.png)
background-size: contain, 200px
background-position: 50% 100% , 0% 100%
name: about-bitss
# About Us
### [BITSS](https://bitss.org)
.pull-left[
The Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences works to improve </br>the credibility of science by </br>
advancing transparency, </br> reproducibility, rigor, and </br> ethics in research.
### OPA
Aleks Bogdanoski
Fernando Hoces
Katie Hoeberling
]
.pull-right[ .right[
We are part of the Center for Effective Global Action ([CEGA](https://cega.berkeley.edu/)).
</br></br></br></br></br></br></br></br>
Edward Miguel
Emma Ng
]]
---
# About Me
<br>
.font140[
- Long time aspiration to contribute to bringing more empirical rigor to policy discussions
- Admire academic pursuit of rigor and global scope of the endeavor
- Not so interested in novelty, struggle with academic contempt towards policy analysis
- Admire relevancy of policy analysis, but struggle with lack of rigor
- Work as a policy economist for 4 years in Chile (Poverty, Education)
- Migrated to the US for family reasons 8 years ago
]
---
# About You
<br>
.font140[
- In one word: which area do you work on?
- Example: health, poverty, labor, energy, etc.
- What policy issue has occupied most of your time lately?
- Example: identifying vulnerable populations, providing essential goods or services, building infraestructure, etc.
- What type of analysis did you used, or would have liked to use, to inform the previous policy issue?
- Example: geografical estimates of poverty, accurate costs of provision of goods and services, context relevant cost-benefits analysis.
]
---
class: inverse, center, middle
name: framework
# A Framework for Open Policy Analysis
<html><div style='float:left'></div><hr color='#EB811B' size=1px width= %total% ></html>
.font170[Based on [Hoces, Grant and Miguel 2020](https://osf.io/preprints/metaarxiv/jnyqh/)]
---
name: motivation
# .font80[Policy Analysis And The Evidence-Based Policy Movement]
.font130[
Evidence-Based movement is growing.
- The golden age of evidence-based policy (Haskins 2017).
- Credible causal evidence (Angrist & Pischke, 2010).
- Transparency and reproducibility of research (Miguel et al. 2014).
- Commission on Evidence-Based Policymaking (CEBP, 2017)
]
--
.font130[
Policy Analysis is a fundamental link.
- As many definitions as textbooks (Dunn, 2015; Weimer & Vining, 2017; Williams, 1971)
- Common denominator: client-oriented empirical analysis meant to inform a specific policy debate
- Aspires at scientific rigor. (Wildavsky 1979),
]
---
background-image: url(Images/policy_agencies.png)
background-size: cover
# Examples of Policy Analysts
---
background-image: url(Images/figure_1_1.png)
background-size: contain
# One Link From Evidence to Policy
---
background-image: url(Images/figure_1_1_black.png)
background-size: contain
# One Link From Evidence to Policy
---
# Reproducibility Crisis In Empirical Research
.font140[
<br>
- Large magnitude of publication bias (Franco et al 2014).
]
--
.font140[
- Evidence of extensive p-hacking across social science disciplines (Gerber et al 2008, Brodeur et al 2016).
]
--
.font140[
- Replication rates are low (Collaboration et al, 2015 , Camerer et al, 2016, 2018).
]
--
.font140[
- Computational reproducibility is also low (Stodden et al 2016, Chang and Li 2015, Gertler et al 2018).
]
---
# The Open Science Movement
.font140[
<br>
- Definition of principles of Open Science/Research Transparency (Miguel et al 2014)
]
--
.font140[
- Development of guidelines to operationalize principles of Open Science (Nosek et al 2015)
]
--
.font140[
- Journals and funders: Journals (Science + 5k other journals), Registries (AEA), Funders (NIH, NSF and multiple donors)
]
---
# Credibility Crisis Of Policy Analysis
.font140[
<br>
- Incredible Certitudes (Manski, 2013)
]
--
.font140[
- Report wars (Wesselink et al, 2013)
]
--
.font140[
- Alternative facts (“The Death of Expertise” Nichols, 2017; “The Death of Truth”, Kakutani 2018; “Post-Truth”, McIntyre 2018)
]
---
# How This Affects The Evidence Based Policy Link?
---
background-image: url(Images/figure_1_1.png)
background-size: contain
count:false
# How This Affects The Evidence Based Policy Link?
---
background-image: url(Images/fig2.png)
background-size: contain
count:false
# How This Affects The Evidence Based Policy Link?
---
# Relevance
.font140[
<br>
Main consequences of policy analysis that lacks openness:
- 1 - Cherry picking evidence.
]
--
.font140[
- 2 - Challenging to automate and improve systematically recurring reports.
]
--
.font140[
- 3 - Difficulty understanding how research informs policy analysis.
]
---
# Cherry Picking Evidence
<br>
.font150[
<blockquote>
“When I was director of the CBO, I was very frustrated when we would write a policy report [saying] a certain policy would have these two advantages and these two disadvantages, and the advocates would quote only the part about the advantages, and the opponents would quote only the part about the disadvantages. That encourages the view that there are simple answers. There aren’t generally simple answers. There are trade-offs.”
</br></br>
.right[ <cite> Douglas Elmendorf (Director of CBO, 2009-2015)
Harvard Magazine, [2016](https://harvardmagazine.com/2016/09/a-moral-conscience-for-economics))</cite> ]
</blockquote>
]
---
count: false
# Cherry Picking Evidence
<br>
.font150[
<blockquote>
“When I was director of the CBO, I was very frustrated when we would write a policy report [saying] a certain policy would have <b>these two advantages and these two disadvantages</b>, and the <b>advocates</b> would <b>quote only</b> the part about the <b>advantages</b>, and the <b>opponents</b> would quote <b>only</b> the part about the <b>disadvantages.</b> That encourages the view that there are simple answers. There aren’t <b>generally simple answers</b>. There are <b>trade-offs</b>.”
</br></br>
.right[ <cite> Douglas Elmendorf (Director of CBO, 2009-2015)
Harvard Magazine, [2016](https://harvardmagazine.com/2016/09/a-moral-conscience-for-economics))</cite> ]
</blockquote>
]
---
# Open Science
<br>
.font180[
| | Empirical<br>Research | Policy<br>Analysis |
|:---------: |:-------------------------------------------------------: |:----------------------------------: |
| **Problems** | Reproducibility<br>Crisis | Credibility<br>Crisis |
| **Solutions** | Open Science<br>Principles, Guidelines,<br>Applications | ... |
]
---
# Open Policy Analysis
<br>
.font180[
| | Empirical<br>Research | Policy<br>Analysis |
|:---------: |:-------------------------------------------------------: |:----------------------------------: |
| **Problems** | Reproducibility<br>Crisis | Credibility<br>Crisis |
| **Solutions** | Open Science<br>Principles, Guidelines,<br>Applications | Open Policy Analysis<br>Principles |
]
---
background-image: url(Images/process_pa.png)
background-size: contain
count:true
# The Process of Policy Analysis
---
# Principles for Open Policy Analysis
<br><br><br>
## 1 - Open Output
## 2 - Open Analysis
## 3 - Open Materials
---
background-image: url(Images/main_pe.png), url(Images/open_output1.svg)
background-size: 500px, 300px
background-position: 80% 50%, 0% 40%
count:true
# Open Output: One Single Output
---
background-image: url(Images/output-input.gif), url(Images/open_output2.svg)
background-size: 700px, 300px
background-position: 80% 50%, 0% 40%
count:true
# Open Output: Clear Input-Output Link
---
background-image: url(Images/open_analysis.gif), url(Images/open_analysis.svg)
background-size: 900px, 300px
background-position: 100% 50%, 0% 40%
count:true
# Open Analysis
---
background-image: url(Images/open_materials.gif), url(Images/open_materials.svg)
background-size: 900px, 300px
background-position: 100% 50%, 0% 40%
count:true
# Open Materials
---
background-image: url(Images/opa_framework.svg)
background-size: contain
count:true
# A Framework for Open Policy Analysis
---
class: inverse, center, middle
name: case_studies
# Case Studies on Open Policy Analysis
<html><div style='float:left'></div><hr color='#EB811B' size=1px width= %total% ></html>
---
# \#1 Minimum Wage (US)
<br>
.font140[
- 2017
- Proof of concept
- Stackeholders involved: none
- Result: [Dynamic Document](https://rpubs.com/fhoces/dd_cbo_mw), and [Sensitivity Analysis](https://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD394.html)
- Impact: maybe influenced new policies at mayor policy analysis organization (CBO) ]
---
# \#2 Wealth Tax (US)
<br>
.font140[
- 2019
- [First full OPA](https://www.bitss.org/opa/projects/progressive-wealth-tax/)
- Stackeholders involved: original policy analysts
- Impact: praised in social media
]
---
# \#3 Deworming Interventions (Kenya+)
<br>
.font140[
- 2020 (August - September)
- Stackeholders involved: original policy analysts and some key policy makers
- Expected impact: will directly support policy decisions in several countries
]
---
# Our Plan for OPA
<br>
.font140[
- Develop framework to support OPA
- Support transition/adoption of OPA, and develop **case studies**
- Train students and analysts
- Build a comunity of practice
]
---
background-image: url(Images/aspiration.png)
background-size: contain
count:true
# An Aspiration
---
class: inverse, center, middle
name: framework
# Discussion
<html><div style='float:left'></div><hr color='#EB811B' size=1px width= %total% ></html>
---
# Open Discussion
<br>
.font140[
- Who are the key providers of policy analysis in your country?
- Is there an example of a previous analysis that you think could have benefited from the OPA framework?
- Can you think of a topic in the near future (up to 2 years) where a policy analysis will be generated and might benefit from the OPA framework?
Feel free to paste references in the chat, or send them to me by email: [email protected]
]
</textarea>
<style data-target="print-only">@media screen {.remark-slide-container{display:block;}.remark-slide-scaler{box-shadow:none;}}</style>
<script src="https://remarkjs.com/downloads/remark-latest.min.js"></script>
<script>var slideshow = remark.create({
"ratio": "16:9",
"highlightStyle": "github",
"highlightLines": true,
"countIncrementalSlides": false
});
if (window.HTMLWidgets) slideshow.on('afterShowSlide', function (slide) {
window.dispatchEvent(new Event('resize'));
});
(function(d) {
var s = d.createElement("style"), r = d.querySelector(".remark-slide-scaler");
if (!r) return;
s.type = "text/css"; s.innerHTML = "@page {size: " + r.style.width + " " + r.style.height +"; }";
d.head.appendChild(s);
})(document);
(function(d) {
var el = d.getElementsByClassName("remark-slides-area");
if (!el) return;
var slide, slides = slideshow.getSlides(), els = el[0].children;
for (var i = 1; i < slides.length; i++) {
slide = slides[i];
if (slide.properties.continued === "true" || slide.properties.count === "false") {
els[i - 1].className += ' has-continuation';
}
}
var s = d.createElement("style");
s.type = "text/css"; s.innerHTML = "@media print { .has-continuation { display: none; } }";
d.head.appendChild(s);
})(document);
// delete the temporary CSS (for displaying all slides initially) when the user
// starts to view slides
(function() {
var deleted = false;
slideshow.on('beforeShowSlide', function(slide) {
if (deleted) return;
var sheets = document.styleSheets, node;
for (var i = 0; i < sheets.length; i++) {
node = sheets[i].ownerNode;
if (node.dataset["target"] !== "print-only") continue;
node.parentNode.removeChild(node);
}
deleted = true;
});
})();
(function() {
"use strict"
// Replace <script> tags in slides area to make them executable
var scripts = document.querySelectorAll(
'.remark-slides-area .remark-slide-container script'
);
if (!scripts.length) return;
for (var i = 0; i < scripts.length; i++) {
var s = document.createElement('script');
var code = document.createTextNode(scripts[i].textContent);
s.appendChild(code);
var scriptAttrs = scripts[i].attributes;
for (var j = 0; j < scriptAttrs.length; j++) {
s.setAttribute(scriptAttrs[j].name, scriptAttrs[j].value);
}
scripts[i].parentElement.replaceChild(s, scripts[i]);
}
})();
(function() {
var links = document.getElementsByTagName('a');
for (var i = 0; i < links.length; i++) {
if (/^(https?:)?\/\//.test(links[i].getAttribute('href'))) {
links[i].target = '_blank';
}
}
})();
// adds .remark-code-has-line-highlighted class to <pre> parent elements
// of code chunks containing highlighted lines with class .remark-code-line-highlighted
(function(d) {
const hlines = d.querySelectorAll('.remark-code-line-highlighted');
const preParents = [];
const findPreParent = function(line, p = 0) {
if (p > 1) return null; // traverse up no further than grandparent
const el = line.parentElement;
return el.tagName === "PRE" ? el : findPreParent(el, ++p);
};
for (let line of hlines) {
let pre = findPreParent(line);
if (pre && !preParents.includes(pre)) preParents.push(pre);
}
preParents.forEach(p => p.classList.add("remark-code-has-line-highlighted"));
})(document);</script>
<script>
slideshow._releaseMath = function(el) {
var i, text, code, codes = el.getElementsByTagName('code');
for (i = 0; i < codes.length;) {
code = codes[i];
if (code.parentNode.tagName !== 'PRE' && code.childElementCount === 0) {
text = code.textContent;
if (/^\\\((.|\s)+\\\)$/.test(text) || /^\\\[(.|\s)+\\\]$/.test(text) ||
/^\$\$(.|\s)+\$\$$/.test(text) ||
/^\\begin\{([^}]+)\}(.|\s)+\\end\{[^}]+\}$/.test(text)) {
code.outerHTML = code.innerHTML; // remove <code></code>
continue;
}
}
i++;
}
};
slideshow._releaseMath(document);
</script>
<!-- dynamically load mathjax for compatibility with self-contained -->
<script>
(function () {
var script = document.createElement('script');
script.type = 'text/javascript';
script.src = 'https://mathjax.rstudio.com/latest/MathJax.js?config=TeX-MML-AM_CHTML';
if (location.protocol !== 'file:' && /^https?:/.test(script.src))
script.src = script.src.replace(/^https?:/, '');
document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(script);
})();
</script>
</body>
</html>